Thailand braced for a day of political turmoil Tuesday as divisive billionaire ex-leader Thaksin Shinawatra was set to return after 15 years in exile
Thailand braced for a day of political turmoil Tuesday as divisive billionaire ex-leader Thaksin Shinawatra was set to return after 15 years in exile AFP

Thailand braced for a day of political turmoil Tuesday as divisive billionaire ex-leader Thaksin Shinawatra was set to return after 15 years in exile, hours before a deadlocked parliament votes for a new prime minister.

Former premier Thaksin is expected to touch down at Bangkok's Don Mueang airport around 9:00 am (0200 GMT) and be arrested immediately in the latest act in the kingdom's rolling political drama.

Parliament will vote in the afternoon on whether to approve business tycoon Srettha Thavisin as prime minister at the head of a multi-party coalition and end three months of political logjam that began with the May election.

The 74-year-old Thaksin, twice prime minister but ousted in a 2006 coup, has said he is now willing to face criminal convictions that he went into exile abroad to avoid.

"I would like to request permission to return to live on Thai soil and share the air with my fellow Thai brothers and sisters," he posted on Twitter, which is being rebranded as X, on Monday afternoon.

He is due to arrive by private jet and will be met by police before being taken to the Supreme Court, issued with a jail warrant and put in detention.

"We are ready whenever his return is," said national police chief Damrongsak Kittiprapas.

Police are preparing for an influx of Thaksin supporters coming to greet him, with his Pheu Thai party saying they could number in the thousands.

Thaksin has been convicted in four criminal cases in his absence, although the statute of limitations has expired in one. The jail sentences against him total 10 years.

It is unclear how long Thaksin might serve in jail. His associates hope he may be moved to house arrest after a brief incarceration, although there are no guarantees.

There is also a chance of a last-minute change of heart -- Thaksin has a long history of reneging on pledges to come back, most recently cancelling a journey for August 10 because of medical checks.

But all the signs are that this time, he will return.

While party patriarch Thaksin is being processed by the courts, Pheu Thai MPs will be preparing for the vote for a prime minister, expected around 3:00 pm.

The party is confident of getting its candidate Srettha approved in a joint vote by both houses, after gaining another 40 seats for its coalition on Monday with the addition of army-linked Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP).

It takes their controversial grouping -- including military-backed United Thai Nation, the former party of 2014 coup-maker Prayut Chan-o-cha -- to 314 lower house seats.

The bloc still needs around 60 out of 250 military-appointed senators to vote for Srettha, putting them well over the 374 threshold.

The complicated wrangling comes after the progressive Move Forward Party (MFP) saw its leader Pita Limjaroenrat taken out of the running by the conservative establishment, spooked by his pledges of change.

Following MFP's exclusion from the first coalition, Pheu Thai's deals with army-linked parties have enraged supporters who voted overwhelmingly against military-backed rule in May.