Thursday's Stock Market Open: China Trade Deal Prospects Stoke Optimism

U.S. equities opened higher Thursday as China again stoked optimism over a deal to end the U.S.-China trade war.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 10 points shortly after the open at 27,661 while the S&P 500 gained 2 points to 3,115 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 13 to 8,580.

A spokesman for China’s Commerce Ministry told a weekly briefing talks with U.S. trade negotiators are on track just one day after U.S. President Donald Trump said they were going “very well.” A new round of tariffs on Chinese goods are scheduled to take effect Dec. 15 but they could be canceled if prospects for a deal merit reconsideration.

“It is a mistake to try to follow this day by day, because you're always going to have conflicting signals,” said Frank Lavin, who headed the International Trade Administration for the United States Department of Commerce under former president George W. Bush. “There are a lot of moving pieces, I think it's like following the stock market day to day. Some people have to do it, but I’d say it’s going to give you a lot of heartburn.”

China insists tariffs need to be rolled back in any deal.

“The Chinese side believes that if the two sides reach a phase one deal, tariffs should be lowered accordingly,” Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao Feng said.

A phase one deal is not expected to be finished until next month.

Elsewhere, economic data out of Europe was disappointing. German factory orders fell 0.4% in October while an 0.4% increase had been expected. Eurozone retail sales also were lower, dropping 0.6% for the month.

Initial U.S. unemployment claims totaled 203,000 last week, down 10,000 from the previous week. The four-week average was 217,750, down 2,000 from the previous average.

UBS is predicting the British pound could reach $1.35 if Conservatives win next week’s election and Parliament finally adopts Brexit.

“These talks will probably be nearly as drawn-out and fractious as their predecessors, and the prospect of the U.K. reverting to a World /trade Organization trade relationship with the EU will loom large once again with the next critical deadline possibly arriving by July. By then, the U.K. would have to decide whether to extend the transition period beyond December 2020,” UBS said.

On Thursday, the pound was trading at $1.3148 Thursday, up 0.34%.

In France, workers staged a nationwide strike in protesting President Emmanuel Macron's plans for a universal points-based pension system. Interior Minister Christophe Castaner said he expected nearly 250 demonstrations to be staged across the country. A 1995 strike over pensions paralyzed the transport system for three weeks before the government acceded to prosteters’ demands.

Global markets were mixed.

In Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed up 0.59% while Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.71% and China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.74%. Australia’s S&P/ASX jumped 1.16%.

In early afternoon trading in Europe, London’s FTSE 100 was off 0.4% while the German DAX dipped 0.12% and the French CAC gained 0.59%. The Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.18%.

The euro was trading up 0.22% at $1.11 while the U.S. dollar index was off 0.19%.

Crude oil futures gained 0.92% to $58.97 a barrel while Brent crude futures were up 1.3% to $63.82 a barrel. Gold futures were flat while silver was higher.