Tom Brady vs. Pat Mahomes: Which Quarterback Will Put Up Better Numbers In AFC Championship?

It will be a marquee quarterback matchup on Sunday when the Kansas City Chiefs host the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship. The Chiefs boast the favorite to win the MVP, while the Patriots rely on the experience of one of the all-time greatest quarterbacks.

The Patriots' Tom Brady is coming off a stellar performance against the Los Angeles Chargers in the divisional game, completing 33 of his 44 pass attempts for 343 yards and a touchdown. The Chiefs stuck to the running game in the snow against the Indianapolis Colts, yet Pat Mahomes still managed to provide a solid effort, passing for 278 yards while running for a touchdown.

How will the two quarterbacks fare on Sunday night at Arrowhead Stadium?

A look back at the Week 6 matchup between the two teams might provide some insight into how the AFC Championship might play out, though the conditions will be much different on Sunday. The Chiefs will be at home and the weather will be much colder, which can have a big impact on the passing game. Mahomes is also without star running back Kareem Hunt, though Damien Williams did a more than serviceable job against the Colts, rushing for 129 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries.

In the Patriots' 43-40 shootout win, Brady finished 24-35 for 340 yards and a touchdown. Mahomes went 23-36 for 352 yards and four touchdowns but was intercepted twice. It was such a tight duel that Mahomes finished with a 110 passer rating — barely edging Brady's 109.2.

Mahomes has certain advantages over Brady on Sunday. The crowd at Arrowhead Stadium will be quite loud when the Chiefs defense is on the field, which means Brady may have some trouble calling out plays. When the Patriots were on the road against the Denver Broncos in the 2016 AFC Championship, Brady was intercepted twice in a 20-18 loss.

What Mahomes lacks in experience, he makes up for in talent. The 23-year-old is excellent at creating plays when under pressure and is a threat to scramble, having rushed for 272 yards in the regular season. Mahomes has dazzled this season with improbable completions and with nine rushes of 10 yards or more.

The Chiefs also have the game's most explosive offensive weapon in Tyreek Hill. The diminutive wide receiver gives opposing defenses fits with his ability to get open and evade tacklers. Mahomes will almost certainly target Hill often.

But Brady has experience on his side. At age 41, Brady has seen it all and looks just as efficient as ever. He posted comparable statistics in 2018 to most of his past seasons, leading to another trip to the AFC title game.

It should be business as usual for Brady, who has the benefit of a strong running game with Sony Michel and an offensive line that helped the Patriots improve to an average of 127.3 rushing yards in 2018 compared to 118.1 rushing yards in 2017. In fact, it has been five years since the Patriots averaged more than 127.3 yards a game. Against the Chargers' solid rush defense, the Patriots ran for 155 yards and four touchdowns, which could spell trouble for a Chiefs' defense that in the regular season allowed an average of 132.1 rushing yards.

Brady's pocket presence is as calm as ever, as he has found receivers like Julian Edelman with relative ease this season. Against the Chargers, Edelman caught nine passes for 151 yards and he had a touchdown reception against the Chiefs in Week 6. Brady should not have much trouble finding Edelman again if the Chiefs defense becomes too committed to slowing the Patriots' running game.

Brady, meanwhile, fumbled just four times in the regular season compared to Mahomes' six fumbles.

Conclusion: This has the makings of a memorable showdown. Brady is a master of quarterback fundamentals and will likely keep the Patriots competitive in a tough road test. However, Mahomes will likely post stronger statistics than Brady because he has more weapons and is a greater threat to run.

Bobby Ilich contributed to this report.