Toronto Raptors vs. Milwaukee Bucks Game 5: Prediction, Odds, Betting Preview For 2019 NBA Playoffs

We’ve got ourselves a series. The Eastern Conference Finals has gone from a best-of-seven to a best two out of three with the Toronto Raptors tying the Milwaukee Bucks at 2-2 after Tuesday night’s Game 4 win.

Both teams have held serve at home in a similar fashion, winning one game by the hair of their chin and the other contest in a blowout. The momentum has shifted in the direction of the Raptors, who have seemingly figured out how to compete against the East’s No.1 seed.

Now, Toronto has to prove they can carry that success onto the road.

Giannis Antetokounmpo played every bit like the MVP favorite to open the series. Toronto found a way to contain him at Scotiabank Arena, where he was thoroughly outplayed by Kawhi Leonard.

The Bucks are significant favorites in Thursday night’s pivotal Game 5. Milwaukee is laying seven points against Toronto, according to OddsShark. The total is 217.

The betting line serves as a reminder that you shouldn’t overreact to a small sample of games, especially when you consider the location. The Raptors won two straight games north of the border, where they closed out their second-round series against the Philadelphia 76ers.

Toronto has won four home playoff games in a row. They’ve also been beaten on the road three straight times. The Raptors have been defeated by double-digits in three of their last five road games.

The adage that role players perform better at home has been true for the Raptors this postseason, and especially against the Bucks.

Marc Gasol totaled 33 points and 14 assists in Game 3 and Game 4 while making seven of his 14 three-point attempts. Gasol had eight points and six assists while missing seven of nine threes in Game 1 and Game 2. He’s shooting 47.1 percent from the field at home in the playoffs compared to 35.7 percent on the road.

Serge Ibaka had a massive impact in Game 4, scoring 17 points and increasing his home shooting percentage to 45.9. The veteran was five-of-15 in Milwaukee. Ibaka has shot better than 50 percent from the field three times in Toronto. He hasn’t done it once on the road.

Even Fred VanVleet got into the action Tuesday night with 13 points on six field-goal attempts and six assists. The backup guard has been a complete zero on the road with 3.1 points and 2.1 assists per game on 22.6 percent shooting.

The Raptors got the same amount of open shots in Toronto as they did in Milwaukee. They simply executed better at home.

Toronto registered a 61.3 effective field-goal percentage on 40 uncontested shots in two home games, according to Second Spectrum tracking, per ESPN.com. On the same number of uncontested looks in two games at Milwaukee, the Raptors posted a 47.5 effective field-goal percentage.

Unlike most of the other Raptors, Leonard didn’t exceed expectations on the offensive side of the floor in Game 4. He scored just 19 points to go along with a single assist, seemingly hampered by a leg injury. Toronto hasn’t officially diagnosed their best player with injury, but Leonard’s teammates have acknowledged that he isn’t 100 percent.

It was largely thought that Leonard would have to carry the Raptors if they wanted a chance at upsetting the Bucks. That hasn’t changed because of two wins in their own arena.

Kyle Lowry and Pascal Siakam have been largely good, yet somewhat unpredictable, in the playoffs. Let’s see what Toronto’s bench can do when dealing with an intense Milwaukee crowd. Expect Antetokounmpo to play better and possibly get a friendlier whistle from the referees at home.

Milwaukee might still struggle to score against Toronto’s defense in the half court. Leonard has done a terrific job guarding Antetokounmpo in the last two games. Eric Bledsoe has been awful this series, shooting 11-45.

The Raptors will have their own offensive issues against the NBA’s No.1 ranked defense as they did in the first half of the series. A healthy Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Malcolm Brogdon and Brook Lopez have been reliable at home all season long.

Laying seven points with how poorly the Bucks played in Toronto is risky. Picking them to win straight up (-290), along with under 217, is not a bad idea.

The Bucks were playing like a real threat to the Golden State Warriors just a few days. That same team could very well show up in Milwaukee’s biggest game of the season Thursday night.

Game 5 Prediction: Milwaukee over Toronto, 107-97