Trump Approval Ratings Improving, Declining Or Staying The Same Ahead Of Conventions?

With the party conventions looming, heightened attention has surrounded the approval ratings of President Trump.

The last three incumbents were successful in their reelection bids but the circumstances in 2020 are much different. Trump has endured multiple stretches of high disapproval ratings, became the first president since Andrew Johnson to be impeached in his first term and is in the throes of a pandemic.

Despite a tumultuous summer, Trump's approval ratings have mostly been unchanged. The right-leaning Fox News released a poll this week showing Trump's job approval rating at 44% and his disapproval rating at 54%. The figures are quite similar to a Fox News poll from mid-July that showed Trump with a 45% approval rating and a 54% disapproval rating. In mid-June, Fox News reported that Trump had a 42% approval rating and a 54% disapproval rating.

Fox News' latest poll is consistent with other surveys. According to poll aggregator Real Clear Politics, Trump's overall average shows a 43.2% approval rating and a 54.6% disapproval rating.

Among polls in August, Trump's best showing came from CNBC/Change Research, which indicated he had a 46% approval rating and a 54% disapproval rating. Trump's worst showing in August came from Politico/Morning Consult, which showed him at a 41% approval rating and a 58% disapproval rating.

Meanwhile, Trump trails in general election polls. The latest Fox News poll shows presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden with a solid lead on Trump, 49%-42%. A recent Economist-YouGov poll showed Biden with a 10-point lead over Trump -- 49% to 39%.

Biden’s recent decision to choose Sen. Kamala Harris of California as his running mate, along with the upcoming Democratic National Convention, could help widen his lead on Trump. Biden and Harris have targeted Trump for his response to COVID-19 and accused him of stoking racial divisions in his response to nationwide demonstrations.

The Democratic National Convention starts Monday and culminates with the former vice president accepting the presidential nomination. Harris will accept her nomination on Wednesday night.

Trump could see a polling bump from the Republican National Convention, which will take place between Aug. 24-27. Fox News reported that Trump will participate in each day of the convention as opposed to just the final night.

Opinion poll analytics website FiveThirtyEight currently shows Biden favored to win the election in its forecast model.