Trump News: Stock Market Will Rally If Trump Resigns, Pence Is President

We'd better get used to the idea of a President Mike Pence.

But a Pence presidency, which now doesn't seem like the pipe dream it was last year, wouldn't stampede Wall Street into a bear market, contends Florida-based Raymond James Financial, an independent investment bank and financial services company.

Raymond James argues Wall Street will love the conservative, evangelical -- and more predictable -- Pence compared to the moody Donald Trump. It predicts the current bull market will keep going under Pence. Trump has loudly said Wall Street will crash if he were impeached.

After the initial shock and a Wall Street dip on Trump's resignation, "we think the market rallies as Pence is a predictable, traditional, conservative choice," wrote Raymond James in a report published Wednesday.

The company, however, believes Trump resigning remains a "low probability event." This, because Trump doesn't want to validate allegations of wrongdoing by resigning. His resignation will immediately open him to a ton of lawsuits about his conduct while in office.

On the other hand, Raymond James believes it's also quite "possible" Trump will decide to resign because he wants to avoid becoming infamous as the only third president in U.S. history to be impeached. And, if he's convicted by the Senate, Trump will become the first president to be removed from office. Trump will want to avoid this indelible stain to his reputation.

Raymond James contends that drug firms, defense contractors and companies linked to trade with China stand to benefit from a Trump resignation.

President Pence would bring back a sense of calm, argues Chris Meekins, a Raymond James analyst who wrote the report.

"It creates some certainty, which the market historically craves," said Meekins. "Some investors have reached out saying, 'We've been talking about this for months and we're glad you finally raised it.'"

Meekins said the report was one of the firm's most widely read. He also said the firm decided to write the report because Trump's impending resignation -- and a Pence presidency -- kept coming up in conversations among Republicans in Washington, D.C.

"Independently, different people associated with Trump's orbit brought this idea up unsolicited," said Meekins in surprise.

Other analysts said they can better tolerate a Pence presidency.

"The markets can live happily with Pence, on trade in particular," said Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments. "Pence would get along far better with the Chamber of Commerce and the free trade advocates. He'd shy away from tariffs."

Like Raymond James, Valliere doesn't believe Trump will quit because doing so will increase his legal jeopardy.