Trump Takes Pennsylvania, Now Leads In 4 Swing States: Polymarket 2024 Election Forecast

Just over a day after taking a strong lead in three of six swing states tracked by decentralized market prediction platform Polymarket, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has taken the lead in another state: battleground Pennsylvania.

Trump Takes Pennsylvania After Tie

As of Tuesday night, Trump is leading Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris in four battleground states, data from Polymarket showed.

Trump is leading the vice president by a wide margin in Georgia, at 61% to 39%, while Harris leads Trump by the same figures in Michigan. In Arizona, Trump is up by 10%, and in Nevada, the business mogul leads by 6%. On the other hand, Harris has a comfortable 14% lead over Trump in Wisconsin.

The biggest take in Tuesday's figures is Trump's new lead in Pennsylvania. A day earlier, the numbers were tied. Trump is now up by two percentage points.

Why is Pennsylvania a Purple State?

Pennsylvania has always been a pole state in lists of battleground states or so-called "purple" states for the 2024 election. What made it join the key states list?

Pennsylvania notably delivered the victory to Trump in 2016, snapping the Democratic Party's streak in the Keystone State that delivered the victories of ex-President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. Since 2016, Pennsylvania has established itself as a purple state that could sway this year's elections.

Who Will Pennsylvania Lift This Time?

TIME Magazine says the state is "the biggest prize on the board right now and the most important piece of Democrats' firewall against Trump." CNN notes how President Joe Biden won Pennsylvania in the 2020 elections, suggesting that expectation for Harris to take the said state is only heightening. Biden narrowly won the state.

Pennsylvania has become hard to read since Trump's 2016 win. Notably, Pennsylvania was also the state that saw Trump with blood on his face after an attempted assassination during a rally in Butler in July.

It remains to be seen which presidential candidate will actually take Pennsylvania in November, but regardless of who wins in this particular key state, it has at least established itself as the center of political gravity in the past few elections, and this year, the stakes have gone higher for both sides to claim the state that delivered both devastating defeats and critical victories to the blue and red parties.

In the broader election forecast on Polymarket, crypto traders have pushed Trump's chances of winning in November to 50%, while Harris is just behind at 49%.

Pennsylvania's Ties to Crypto

In an election that's increasingly giving a voice to the cryptocurrency community, Pennsylvania is apparently tied to the industry. Bitcoin mining firms have been popping out across the state in recent years.

While some companies have been accused of lacking in the necessary requirements to operate, noise pollution, and potential environmental impacts, it can be safe to say that the Keystone State is crypto-friendly since residents can use their digital assets in various transactions.

Trump has increasingly expressed support for crypto in recent months, but his motives have also been questioned. Harris, on the contrary, has yet to publicly discuss her views on the crypto industry.