Trump's Policies Will Likely Hold Off Recession For Years, Says Nobel-Winning Economist

The political world is always in an uproar. You cannot turn on the news today without hearing somebody crying wolf about an approaching recession. This rocky political climate, though, is masking an unusually strong economy. And here is another economist, whose job it is to track the economy, who is striking a note starkly different from the dire warnings of political commentators and media reports.

According to Nobel prize-winning economist Robert Shiller, we may be several years away from a recession. The simple fact of the matter is that President Donald Trump is creating an environment that's conducive to a strong consumer spending base. Schiller terms this to be "a bullish Trump effect" on the market.

"Consumers are hanging in there. You might wonder why that would be at this time so late into the cycle. This is the longest expansion ever. Now, you can say the expansion was partly [President Barack] Obama,” he told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Friday.

There are always questions surrounding the risk on Wall Street. Americans, however, are having no problems keeping their wallets wide open. This has a lot to do with the impression that the president gives off, said Shiller. Trump is the personification of consumption. This bullish view that he puts forth for the American people has managed to drive the economy. And here are no direct signs of it slowing down.

“I think that [strong spending] has to do with the inspiration for many people provided by our motivational speaker president who models luxurious living,” CNBC quoted Shiller as saying.

Shiller tracks a price-to-earnings ratio based on average inflation-adjusted earnings over the last 10 years, which is known as CAPE. He cautions it’s still at a concerning level. The fact that it's held on this long gives rise to the notion that it is not "right around the corner." Last March on "Trading Nation," Shiller himself predicted that there was a 50 percent possibility that the United States would end up in a recession within 18 months.

Shiller does say that before markets can take off, President Trump needs to get past the impeachment inquiry he is facing. According to Schiller: “We’re maybe in the Trump era, and I think that Donald Trump by inspiration affected the market — not just tax-cutting.”

In mid-August, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimated the risk of an economic recession engulfing the U.S. are increasing as Trump’s untamed trade war against China begins to spiral out of control. It said fears the ongoing U.S.-China trade war will trigger a recession are escalating.

Another recent report pointed to a slowdown in the U.S. economy, pressured by the trade dispute with China and slowing growth worldwide. The figures show the U.S. economy is still growing, “albeit more slowly,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at the Conference Board.

Only time will tell but with recent developments, the economy is looking pretty strong.

And for the politics, Shiller echoed what Moody's Analytics said recently about Trump's re-election chances. “If the economy is strong, which is what he built his case on, ‘make America great again,’ he has a good chance of getting re-elected.”