KEY POINTS

Turkey has threatened to retaliate against U.S. sanctions by closing Incirlik
One-third of the U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe are stored there
Turkey disregarded U.S. warnings to purchase a Russian missile system

Relations between the U.S. and Turkey may have hit rock bottom, and that means changes are on the horizon for military strategists. Things have been looking rocky in the last few months as Turkey attacked Kurdish fighters who are backed by the U.S. military, got booted from a program that would have sent it dozens of F-35 aircraft, and purchased the Russian made S-400 missile system.

The political crying and finger-pointing have taken a new turn as Ankara has threatened that if the U.S. levies any sanctions for the missile system purchase, as is expected, it will close the Incirlik Air Base. The sprawling air base in southern Turkey is a crucial strategic point for all U.S. missions in the Middle East, because of its proximity to Syria, Iran, and Iraq.

Incirlik Air Base has been leased by the U.S. government since 1955 and boasts a compliment of 5,000 U.S. airmen and is home to the 39th Air Base Wing. The base also hosts RAF airmen and detachments of the Turkish air force. The base has a 10,000 ft runway (one of the longest in the world) and houses about one-third of the U.S. military’s nuclear weapons in the region.

A report by Reuters indicates that this would be a direct retaliatory measure by Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, who said: “If they are threatening us with the implementation of these sanctions, of course, we will be retaliating.” The political wrangling has continued even after President Trump offered a $100 billion trade deal to help Turkey avoid sanctions for its dealings with Russia.

Incirlik Air Base
A Hercules C-130 military aircraft maneuvres on the runway at Incirlik Air Base, in the outskirts of the city of Adana, southeastern Turkey, on July 28, 2015. After months of reluctance, Turkish warplanes last week started striking militant targets in Syria and agreed to allow the US to launch its own strikes from Turkey's strategically located Incirlik Air Base. In a series of cross-border strikes, Turkey has not only targeted the ISIS but also Kurdish fighters affiliated with forces battling ISIS in Syria and Iraq. Getty Images/AFP/STR

An Air Force source at Incirlik confirmed to International Business Times that there has been the talk of closing the base down, but reiterates that this is nothing new. As for packing the units and weapons up, there is always a plan in place, and while it may destabilize the region, all U.S. military personnel and weaponry would be safe.

It does not appear likely that Incirlik would be closed as Turkey would run the risk of crossing the U.S. as an ally. The government does have the right to cancel the lease, but it also stands to lose a tremendous amount of security and financial backing if it chooses to do so. The U.S. would be put in a bad situation as it is likely that Russia would then rent the base.

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