Two Big Swing States May Make Or Break Trump's Chances Against Biden

Democratic nominee Joe Biden holds a lead over President Donald Trump in Wisconsin, but the race may be narrowing in Pennsylvania, according to polls released Monday from Reuters/Ipsos.

The Wisconsin survey shows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 48% to 43%. The Pennsylvania poll shows Biden with a 3-point lead, 49% to 46%.

Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes, while Pennsylvania has 20. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 but managed to narrowly win both states against Hillary Clinton. Trump finished with 304 electoral votes -- 34 votes above the 270 electoral-vote threshold.

Many political pundits believe Trump's path to victory goes through the Midwest. Trump was able to pull off victories in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2016. All four states may be up for grabs in 2020, according to recent polling. Only two blue states that went to Clinton — Minnesota and New Hampshire — could potentially be flipped by Trump but polls show he trails in both.

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin might be particularly concerning for Trump. In 2018 gubernatorial races, Pennsylvania Democrats pulled off a landslide victory, while Wisconsin saw a tight Democrat win. Voter turnout is often stronger in presidential elections.

On Monday, Biden visited Wisconsin, touring an aluminum factory about 70 miles north of Milwaukee. Biden attacked the Trump administration’s COVID-19 response, as the nation’s death toll from the virus nears 200,000.

Trump, meanwhile, will make several visits to Pennsylvania this week.

On Tuesday, Trump will hold a rally at Pittsburgh International Airport, and will also hold an event on Saturday at Harrisburg International Airport. Biden gave an address this past Sunday in Philadelphia, where he called on the Senate to not hold a vote on a replacement for late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg until after the election.

Recent general election polls show Biden holding a lead over Trump. An IBD/TIPP poll shows Biden leading Trump by 6 points nationwide, 50% to 44%.