The US Congress passed a last-minute short-term spending plan September 30, 2023
The US Congress passed a last-minute short-term spending plan September 30, 2023 AFP

Washington lawmakers' last-minute dodge to avoid a government shutdown over the weekend will keep the lights on for another few weeks -- but the deal leaves significant questions unanswered, including whether the United States will continue sending aid to Ukraine and whether House Speaker Kevin McCarthy will keep his job.

Here are a few points to help decipher the drama unfolding on Capitol Hill.

Though the continuing resolution passed by Congress Saturday night gives the federal government some breathing to negotiate the finer points of its spending plan, the whole negotiation must be repeated within 45 days.

If a budget for the next fiscal year doesn't pass both chambers by midnight on November 17, last week's arbitrations will have been for naught, and the United States will enter a shutdown anyway.

But the main sticking point remains the same now as it was before the weekend agreement: a few powerful far-right House representatives want to enact a bare-bones spending plan that the Democratically controlled Senate would almost certainly refuse to pass.

Among the issues still up in the air is military aid for Ukraine as the country fights the Russian invasion that began last year.

The text adopted this weekend does not include provisions for Kyiv, despite calls from the White House and Senate to incorporate it.

Still, Democrats hope to pass a separate aid measure in the coming days, though it is unclear if such a package would include the $24 billion President Joe Biden had originally sought.

The faction of far-right Republican House members says money sent to Ukraine could be better spent dealing with the immigration crisis at the US-Mexico border.

And speaker McCarthy has said he will require certain guarantees before introducing a new aid bill.

But McCarthy is facing dissent even from his own Republican camp, with Trump-loyalist congressman Matt Gaetz accusing the speaker of devising a "secret deal" with Biden to green-light Ukraine aid.

In retaliation for the supposed betrayal, Gaetz has raised the possibility of ousting McCarthy -- whose far-right support was already shaky even before the latest spending fight -- from his post.

"I do intend to file a motion to vacate Speaker McCarthy this week," Gaetz told CNN on Sunday.

The 58-year-old McCarthy was narrowly elected to the speakership in January, after ultra-conservative so-called "Freedom Caucus" lawmakers withheld their support for 14 rounds of voting.

To finally win them over on the 15th try, McCarthy had to offer a number of concessions, including that any representative would have the right to introduce a vote to remove him from power.

Such a vote has not yet been called, but at least 20 Republican lawmakers have signaled they could side with Gaetz against McCarthy.

That would leave McCarthy reliant on Democratic votes to remain speaker -- but their support is not guaranteed, as the party weighs whether to rescue their traditional opponent from an even greater mutual adversary, or to let him flounder.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is seen in Washington with with US Senate leaders Chuck Schumer (R) and Mitch McConnell (L) during a visit aimed at keeping his war agenda high on the list of US priorities
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is seen in Washington with with US Senate leaders Chuck Schumer (R) and Mitch McConnell (L) during a visit aimed at keeping his war agenda high on the list of US priorities AFP
US lawmaker Matt Gaetz, seen at the Capitol on September 30, 2023, has vowed to seek the removal of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy
US lawmaker Matt Gaetz, seen at the Capitol on September 30, 2023, has vowed to seek the removal of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy AFP
US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, also seen in Washington on September 30, 2023 is facing challenges from the extreme right of his party
US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, also seen in Washington on September 30, 2023 is facing challenges from the extreme right of his party AFP