US Coronavirus Death Toll To Hit 295,000 By December, IHME Model Projects

The United States now has to mourn more than 162,000 deaths caused by COVID-19, and might grieve 295,000 total deaths by Dec.1 if it continues on its present trajectory, shows the latest mathematical model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

The projection of 295,000 deaths is 82% higher than the current total deaths in the country, which stands at some 162,000. The IHME model estimates a 49% reduction in deaths to 228,000 with a universal mask mandate in which 95% of the population wear face masks. On the other hand, a staggering 392,000 deaths might occur by December 1 if mandates such as mask wearing and social distancing are eased.

The previous IHME model predicted 219,000 deaths by November 1 and 186,000 if a universal mask mandate were in place. IHME's first mathematical model released in March estimated 81,000 deaths “through the epidemic’s first wave," a serious underestimate given the current U.S. death toll of 162,000 since the pandemic began.

“We’re seeing a rollercoaster as people are wearing masks and socially distancing more frequently as infections increase,” tweeted Dr. Ali Mokdad, a University of Washington professor who works on the IHME model.

“When infections drop, people let their guard down and stop taking these measures which leads to more infections and the deadly cycle starts over again.”

“The public’s behavior had a direct correlation to the transmission of the virus and, in turn, the numbers of deaths,” IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray said. “Such efforts to act more cautiously and responsibly will be an important aspect of COVID-19 forecasting and the up-and-down patterns in individual states throughout the coming months and into next year.”

At its current pace, the U.S. will again top the weekly summary of global cases and deaths from the World Health Organization (WHO).

On July 31, WHO announced another global high in total weekly global cases with the United States and Latin America still driving the relentless global spread of this highly-infectious disease.

It reported almost 300,000 new COVID-19 cases over the last 24 hours -- the largest single-day recorded increase. The previous largest toll was posted on July 24 when 284,196 cases were reported in 24 hours. Before this, the previous WHO record for new cases in a single-day was 259,848 on July 18.

As of July 31, the Americas had the highest number of global cases at 171,946. Southeast Asia reported the second-highest at 60,113. Next in line was Europe, with 25,241, according to WHO.

Also on that day, the total number of confirmed COVID-19 infections worldwide stood at just 17.7 million along with 670,000 deaths. As of August 6, this total has risen to 19.2 million cases and 716,000 deaths.