US Coronavirus Deaths May Cost Trump Reelection, More Elderly Republicans Are Dying

White voters, especially the elderly, gave Donald Trump the U.S. presidency in 2016, but might fail to deliver the same result Nov. 3.

The reason: the COVID-19 pandemic tearing through the country is killing-off a disproportionate percentage of the elderly white Republicans that voted Trump into office four years ago. In the U.S. and around the world, most of those who die from the coronavirus are older persons, mainly men, 60 years-old and above.

In 2016, 51% of voters with ages from 50- to 64-year-old voted for Trump while 53% of those were 65 and older. Whites accounted for nine-in-ten (88%) of Trump’s supporters as against 60% that voted for Hillary Clinton. Clinton’s voters were younger than Trump’s on average (48% were younger than 50 compared with 35% for Trump).

A published academic report contends the massive case and death toll being inflicted on Americans by the raging COVID-19 pandemic stands to strongly alter the political landscape in battleground states such as Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These massive demographic shifts should be enough to give former vice president Joe Biden the presidency.

The study published in the public administration journal, Administrative Theory & Praxis, conclude this will be the outcome of the Nov. 3 election when considering nothing other than the tens of thousands of deaths projected from COVID-19.

It was co-authored by Andrew Johnson, a professor of management at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi and lead author, and colleagues Dr. Wendi Pollock, an Associate Professor at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi and Beth M. Rauhaus, an Assistant Professor of Public Administration and the MPA Program Coordinator from the same school.

Data compiled by U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reveals eight-in-10 coronavirus-related deaths in the U.S. have been among people ages 65 and older. The share of people in the oldest age brackets is larger in the U.S. than in most other countries. This means 11% of people in the U.S. are 70 or older compared with 6% worldwide. Also, 7% of people in the U.S. are 75 or older compared with 3%, while 4% are 80 or older (compared with 2%).

“The pandemic is going to take a greater toll on the conservative electorate leading into this election -- and that’s simply just a calculation of age,” said Johnson. “The virus is killing more older voters, and in many states that’s the key to a GOP victory.”

The study authors projected that even with shelter-in-place orders, 11,000 more Republicans than Democrats, who are 65 and older, might die before the Nov. 3 election in both Michigan and North Carolina.

In Pennsylvania, more than 13,000 more Republican than Democratic voters in that age category might die before Nov. 3 should the state return to using only social distancing.

More bad news for Trump. His supporters tend to be older and heavier, which are traits correlated with underlying conditions that make COVID-19 more lethal. Smoking, an underlying condition making an older person more vulnerable to COVID-19, also tends to be higher among people in Republican Red States.

The study contends Trump’s mishandling of the COIVD-19 pandemic is increasingly turning away seniors that supported him in 2016. Seniors are especially angry at Trump's prioritizing the re-opening of the moribund U.S. economy over their health and protection.