US Economy 2019: Trump Presses For Drastic Interest Rate Cut As FOMC Meets

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Markets Committee opened two days of meetings Tuesday amid pressure from President Trump to cut interest rates sharply.

The current federal funds rate, the rate at which banks borrow money from each other, stands at 2% to 2.25%. Analysts expect the FMOC to cut that by 25 basis points, the second such cut in as many months, despite Trump’s demand for more drastic action. The CME said there was a 34% chance of no change in rates.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said earlier this month he does not foresee a recession in the immediate future and the Fed will act to sustain economic expansion, now in its record 12th year. The Fed needs room to maneuver once a recession does materialize, he said. In the interim, the Fed might consider another round of quantitative easing.

Growth of the U.S. economy in the second quarter was 2%, down from 3.1% in the previous quarter. U.S. manufacturing also has shown signs of softening.

Last week, Trump demanded the Fed cut interest rates to zero or lower and called the Fed governors a bunch of “boneheads.”

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, a voting member of the FOMC, favors a half-point cut. He has said going to negative rates would be a mistake and cites Japan’s experience as a cautionary tale.

“The meeting should have a dovish tone,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists wrote Monday. “However, in our view, the big question is whether Chair Powell continues to characterize the easing cycle as a ‘mid-cycle adjustment.’ “

Weighing on the FOMC decision is a weak August jobs report that saw the U.S. economy adding just 130,000 jobs last month, indicating employers are exercising caution as the trade dispute with China drags on. The trade war with China is in its second year and the next round of high-level talks are not slated to get underway until next month. The last round was thwarted by disagreements over national security issues and the Chinese are expected to try to get those issues separated so they can be tackled at another time.

The weekend drone strike that cut Saudi Arabia’s oil production ability in half also weighed on the Fed decision. Oil futures surged Monday but trended lower in Tuesday’s trading.

The expected quarter-point cut isn’t expected to do much to move mortgage rates, which Bankrate pegged in the 3.5% range Tuesday. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, told Fox Business, however, a half-point cut would be a different story, sending the rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage to 3.3% by the end of the year.

Goldman Sachs said last week it expects the Fed to continue lowering rates through the end of the year.