US Economy 2020: Did February Jobs Report Beat Projections? Coronavirus Fears May Soon Hurt Employment

February hiring numbers for U.S. private companies bucked projections and coronavirus scares, according to reports.

Early projections from economists estimated the addition of 155,000 non-government jobs by the end of the month. However, Moody’s Analytics has reported that private payroll growth beat expectations with 183,000 new jobs for the month.

Despite this performance, job growth in February still represented a major step down from the previous month. January also beat projections of 209,000 new hires but the number had to be revised after an initial report of 291,000. This initial number would have represented the largest monthly hiring increase in the least five years.

“COVID-19 will need to break through the job market firewall if it is to do significant damage to the economy,” Moody’s Analytics’ Mark Zandi said in a statement to CNBC, assuring that the virus’ impact could not yet be seen in their data. “The firewall has some cracks, but judging by the February employment gain it should be strong enough to weather most scenarios.”

Zandi did, however, note that the virus’ impact on the job market would likely be visible in their data within the next few months. He went further to say that while most economists are hesitant to say it outright, a recession as a result of coronavirus is looking increasingly likely.

“Economists have a really hard time saying over 50% probability of recession,” Zandi said. “I assure you, almost every economist out there is thinking over 50% probability.”

The majority of the new jobs (133,000) added in February came from larger companies, defined as ones with 55 or more employees. This disparity adds credence to the fear from some economists that small businesses will be hit the hardest by coronavirus’s impact on the economy.