US-Iran Relations: Pentagon Warns That Iran May Buy Military Arms From China, Russia

A report by the Defense Intelligence Agency warned Tuesday Iran likely will modernize its military weapons once an embargo expires next year, enhancing its ability to mass expeditionary forces and interfere in regional conflicts, contributing to instability in the region.

“As Tehran expands its capabilities and role as both an unconventional and conventional threat in the Middle East, it is more important than ever that we understand Iran’s military power and the threat it poses to our interests, our allies, and our own security,” Army Lt. Gen. Robert Ashley Jr. wrote in the report’s preface.

The report, “Iran Military Power,” says Iran is refining the lessons it has learned from conflicts in Syria, Iraq and Yemen where it has been fighting the Islamic State group and aiding proxy militias while using denial and deception as a core principle of its military doctrine. It also has been conducting naval operations as far as China, South Africa and in the Mediterranean, the report says.

“It has shown itself capable of sending small groups of conventional forces — including ground forces, military airlift, and UAV operators — into permissive allied countries to support larger operations,” the report says.

The embargo on arms sales to Iran expires next October, part of the 2015 nuclear accord with world powers. President Trump pulled the U.S. out of the agreement and is pushing the international community to keep the arms embargo in place. Tehran is expected to buy advanced fighter aircraft and main battle tanks once it is free to do so.

“Countries like Russia and China will be able to sell Iran sophisticated weapons. The Iranian regime will be free to sell weapons to anyone. This will trigger a new arms race in the Middle East,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tweeted last month.

The Pentagon report says talks on weapons purchases already are underway. It also notes Iran is adept at unconventional tactics like deploying naval mines by using high-speed small boats and, coupled with antiship missiles and other tactics, presents a significant threat to traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

Since 2014, Iran has been sending military advisers to Iraq. It also has provided sophisticated weapons to Houthi rebels in Yemen.

“Iran also uses the IRGC-QF [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force whose goal is to export the 1979 Islamic revolution] to provide varying levels of support to Shia groups in Bahrain, some Palestinian militant groups, and the Taliban in Afghanistan,” the report says.