US Presidential Elections: Strong Economy Could Help Trump’s Re-Election Bid

The impressive GDP report on the U.S. economy’s first quarter must give thumbs up to President Donald Trump just as it cheered the markets and citizens.

For Trump, the strong economy spells a broader opportunity in his second coming as President in the 2020 polls.

Friday’s GDP data released by the Commerce Department showed 3.2 percent growth in the first-quarter GDP that exceeded the meager 2.3 percent expansion predicted by economists.

In fact, the Atlanta Fed's GDP tracker had been saying the first quarter GDP growth will be less than 0.5 percent.

Even as many experts shrug off the strong GDP number as temporary, the fact that 3.2 percent growth was achieved amidst anxieties of a lower growth makes it extraordinary.

Trump’s economic pitch to voters

For President Trump, who made the economy the main pitch to voters, any uptick in the economy gives a multiplier effect on his leadership capabilities.

The latest GDP numbers added an aura to Trump and offering a bigger plank to validate his policies in making the claim that they are strengthening the U.S. economy.

“GDP is an incredible number. But remember this: Not only that, we have great growth - which is growth. We have great growth and also very, very low inflation,” Trump told reporters.

Trump also claimed that the current growth rate has made the U.S the “Number One economy” in the world.

For Trump, facing a weak approval rating, the applause at the economic front can be a shot in the arm for his re-election bid.

Democrats acknowledge that Trump is gaining

Strong GDP numbers indeed promise higher wages and expansion of job sector. This feel-good factor can help in expanding Trump’s acceptability among voters.

Rival Democrats are aware of the advantage Trump is harnessing now. Many of its leaders, including former President Barack Obama, may be quick to argue that Trump is only reaping the gains of the Obama reforms, a new breed of young Democrats believe that the Trump’s economic message has more punch to influence voters.

Celina Lake, a leading Democratic strategist is candid that president Trump’s economic message is stronger than Democrats.

“We will tend to talk about things like paid leave and equal pay - and those things are all very popular policies,” Lake said.

But she notes that they do not add up to the economic message to win the presidency and beat Donald Trump, who talks a robust economic policy.

However, a section of economists expects that the boost from the GOP and Trump backed tax cuts will start fading in the coming quarters and many ill effects of the lingering trade war will show up.

However, at present, the GDP numbers, strong labor market, rising wages, and consumer confidence are giving a big advantage to Trump for the 2020 election.

Low inflation can help Trump

Gerald Seib of the Wall Street Journal says 2020 is too far to be influenced by the quarterly GDP results. But he makes a point that the GDP report’s highlight of low inflation is a vital tool for Trump.

“Inflation was very low. That worries the Federal Reserve Board a little bit, as it may be a sign of hidden weaknesses in the economy. But that’s likely to prompt the Fed to leave on the shelf any ideas about raising interests any time soon,” he noted.

Seib said this would work in Trump’s advantage. In the past, Trump has been complaining that the Fed has been raising interest rates too far and too fast. The new GDP report suggests that inflation is low and the Fed must keep brakes on the interest rate. That is a good sign for Trump in bolstering his chances for the 2020 polls.