US Q2 GDP, Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales: Economic Events For July 23-27

In a fairly light week of data, Friday's first take on the U.S. second-quarter gross domestic product will be the main event. Economists expect a feeble reading of 1.4 percent. This will be the final major data point to influence participants at the July 31 - Aug.1 meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

In the U.S., we will also get durable goods orders, University of Michigan consumer confidence index and pending home sales.

This week sees the release of the first business surveys for July. The euro zone composite purchasing managers' index is likely to suggest that the recession deepened at the start of Q3 while the Ifo survey will likely confirm that Germany is following other euro zone economies on a downward trajectory.

Also in focus are U.K.'s Q2 GDP release, the European Central Bank's Q2 bank lending survey, and euro area money and credit data.

Elsewhere, the central banks of New Zealand, Philippines, Thailand, Israel, Hungary and Colombia will decide on their policy rates. Korea will also release its Q2 GDP figures.

Below are entries on the economic calendar from July 23 to July 27. All listed times are EDT.

Monday

8:30 a.m. -- The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index for June.

3:30 p.m. -- Treasury auctions 13-week and 26-week bonds

7:00 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Board Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin (FOMC voter) speaks on Community Banking before the Graduate School of Banking in Boulder, Colorado.

Non-U.S.:

E17 -- Foreign ministers meet in Brussels.

E17 -- Flash consumer confidence index for July.

Israel -- July base rate announcement.


Tuesday

8:45 a.m. -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks on Early Childhood Education before the Children's Defense Fund National Conference in Cincinnati, Ohio.

8:58 -- The Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI probably dipped for the fourth consecutive month to 52.1 in July, from 52.5 in June, as the downturn in Europe and Asia continues to take its toll.

10:00 a.m. -- FHFA Housing Price Index for May.

10:00 a.m. -- The Richmond Federal Reserve's manufacturing index for July.

3:30 p.m. -- Treasury auctions 4-week and 2-week bonds

5:00 p.m. -- Treasury auctions 2-year notes.

Non-U.S.:

E17 -- Flash manufacturing/services/composite PMI index for July.

Germany -- Flash manufacturing/services PMI index for July.

France -- Flash manufacturing/services PMI index for July.

France -- Upper House of Parliament supplementary the amended budget bill (to July 26).

Greece -- EU/IMF/ECB Troika leaders visit Greece.

Hungary -- July base rate announcement.

China -- HSBC Flash manufacturing PMI index for July.

Japan -- June trade balance.

Wednesday

7:00 a.m. -- MBA Mortgage Index for the week ending July 21.

10:00 a.m. -- Economists look for new home sales to increase marginally to 370,000 in June, from 369,000 in May.

10:30 a.m. -- Crude oil inventories for the week ending July 21.

5:00 p.m. -- Treasury auctions 5-year notes.

Non-U.S.:

Hungary -- EU/IMF talks on Hungary bailout (final day).

Thailand -- July benchmark interest rate.

New Zealand -- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's official cash rate for July.

Germany -- July IFO business climate index, current assessment index and business expectations index.

Italy -- July consumer confidence index.

UK -- Q2 GDP preliminary release.

Mexico -- Economic activity index for May.

France -- Jobseekers net change for June.

Korea -- Q2 GDP.

Thursday

8:30 a.m. -- Durable goods orders likely rose just 0.4 percent in June after increasing 1.3 percent in May. Boeing has already reported that it took orders for 24 aircraft in June, up from eight in May. Meanwhile, motor vehicle probably rose over the course of the month as strong sales likely drove down inventory levels. Excluding transportation, core durable goods orders are expected to remain flat in June.

8:30 a.m. -- Initial jobless claims are expected to decline marginally to 380,000 for the week ending July 21. That is down from the 386,000 recorded in the prior week and would bring the four week moving average to 374,000.

10:00 a.m. -- Pending home sales, which track signed contracts on single-family homes, condos, and co-ops, are likely to increase only 0.2 percent in June after rising 5.9 percent in May.

11:00 a.m. -- The Kansas City Fed's manufacturing composite index for July.

5:00 p.m. -- Treasury auctions 7-year notes.

Non-U.S.:

France -- Upper House of Parliament reviews the supplementary budget bill (final day).

Egypt -- July deposit rate.

Philippines -- BSP policy rate for July.

Germany -- GfK consumer confidence index for August.

E17 -- June M3 money supply and loans to private sector.

Italy -- Retail sales for May.

Korea -- June current account balance.

Japan -- July Tokyo/nationwide CPI.

Friday

8:30 a.m. -- The first estimate of second-quarter GDP is likely to show that the U.S. economy expanded at a feeble 1.4 percent pace in the quarter, down from an only slightly stronger 1.9 percent gain in the first. The latest deterioration in the survey evidence suggests that the third quarter could be even weaker. Much of the deceleration in activity owes to weaker consumer spending. Business investment growth accelerated a little, although the growth rate of residential investment probably slowed. Net external trade was likely a drag on overall growth as exports barely increased at all and lagged behind the gain in imports. The change in inventories is likely to be only small as businesses keep stockpiles lean given the uncertain environment. Core PCE prices should come in at 1.9 percent for the second quarter, a deceleration from the 2.3 percent recorded for the first quarter. This report will also include the annual revisions to data from the past five years. As the sharp downgrades last year illustrated, the annual revision can make a big difference.

9:55 a.m. -- Economists expect the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment to hover near its recent levels with a final reading of 72 for July, down slightly from 73.2 in June.

Non-U.S.:

Colombia -- Overnight lending rate for July.

Germany -- Preliminary CPI and HICP for July.

France -- Consumer confidence indicator index for July.

Spain -- Q2 unemployment rate.

Italy -- July business confidence index.

Sources: Central banks, European Commission, Reuters, Market News, Capital Economics, Nomura.