US Recession Coming Within 12 Months, Chief Economist Predicts

There will be an economic recesion in the United States within the next 12 months, argues Wall Street “perma-bear” David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Canadian independent wealth management firm, Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc.

Rosenberg first predicted a recession will hit the U.S. in December 2018 and repeated this warning last June when he said the U.S. GDP doesn't even have to drop for the country to fall into a recession. He also repeated the observation a country won't know it's in a recession until a year later.

Rosenberg again repeated his warning of a looming recession over the weekend, after the U.S. Federal Reserve System cut interest rates by a quarter point on Sept. 18, the second time since July 31 it cut rates.

“There’s a recession coming in the next 12 months,” asserted Rosenberg on CNBC’s “Futures Now" last week.

He said it’s just a matter of time until economic data proves his point, and the Fed is forced to resume easing over the coming months.

“I think that they’ll go in October and December and through 2020,” he estimates.

Rosenberg said nothing the Fed will do -- even dropping rates to zero, as president Donald Trump demands -- will save the U.S. from a recession.

“The economy is already slowing down,” noted Rosenberg. “Earnings are actually contracting.”

He explained the only reason Fed chairman Jerome Powell hinted rates would only be cut again if there’s new evidence the economy is softening is that Powell "is optimistic on the outlook is because of exactly what the Fed is doing which is breathing stimulus back into the economy."

Rosenberg joins a growing list of experts and institutions predicting a recession by 2021.

A week before the Fed rate cut in July, Morgan Stanley warned any interest rate cut by the Fed won’t save the U.S. economy from a recession over the next year.

The next recession will start as a demand shock, predicted Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. economist. Zentner said the current “credible bear case” probability is about 20 percent, but that might change quickly depending on the track ongoing trade tensions with China take.

“For now, the path to the bear case of a U.S. recession is still narrow, but not unrealistic,” said a report from Zentner and her team.

In mid-August, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimated the risk of an economic recession engulfing the U.S. are increasing as Trump’s untamed trade war against China begins to spiral out of control. It said fears the ongoing U.S.-China trade war will trigger a recession are escalating.

Goldman Sachs again said it no longer expects a trade deal between ongoing U.S.-China before the 2020 U.S. presidential election.