U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Fall As Labor Market Tightens, Seasonal Factors Revised

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, indicating a further tightening of labor market conditions heading into the second quarter, which could contribute to keeping inflation elevated.

Part of the decline in claims back to a more than 53-year low touched in mid-March reflected a revision of the seasonal factors, the model that the government uses to strip out seasonal fluctuations from the data. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Labor Department switched to additive factors to seasonally adjust the initial and continued claims data from multiplicative factors, which economists had complained were less reliable because of the economic shock caused by the coronavirus crisis.

"Now that most of the large effects of the pandemic on the unemployment insurance series have lessened, the seasonal adjustment models are once again specified as multiplicative models," the Labor Department said in a statement on Thursday. "Statistical tests show that the unemployment insurance series should, in normal times, be estimated multiplicatively."Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 166,000 for the week ended April 2. Claims were at this level during the week ending March 19, which was the lowest since November 1968. Seasonal factors back then were much different from now, making it difficult to make comparisons.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 200,000 applications for the latest week. The government also revised claims data from 2017 through 2021. Claims hit a record high of 6.137 million in early April 2020.

"While the pandemic period remains within the five-year revision period, the unemployment insurance series will use a hybrid adjustment approach," the Labor Department said. "For the most volatile economic periods of the pandemic, the series will continue to be additively adjusted for the revised series."

Despite some noise from the changes in the seasonal factors, the labor market is rapidly tightening. A severe shortage of workers is keeping layoffs low and boosting hiring.

Worker demand is being driven by a sharp decline in COVID-19 infections, which has resulted in restrictions being lifted across the country. There were big declines in claims in Michigan and Texas, which offset increases in California, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

There is no sign yet that the Russia-Ukraine war, which has pushed gasoline prices above $4 per gallon, has impacted the labor market. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 431,000 jobs in March, the government reported last Friday.

March marked the 11th straight month of job gains in excess of 400,000, which pushed the unemployment rate to a fresh two-year low of 3.6%. The jobless rate is just one tenth of a percentage point above its pre-pandemic level.

With a near record 11.3 million job openings on the last day of February, the scarcity of workers is forcing companies to boost wages, which is contributing to high inflation.

Minutes of the Federal Reserve's March 15-16 meeting published on Wednesday showed policymakers observed that "demand for labor continued to substantially exceed available supply across many parts of the economy," and "that various indicators

pointed to a very tight labor market."

The U.S. central bank last month raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points, the first hike in more than three years. Wednesday's minutes appeared to set the stage for hefty rate increases down the road..

The claims report also showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid increased 17,000 to 1.523 million during the week ended March 26.