USA Coronavirus To Peak On April 16 With 3,130 Deaths, But Lower Overall Death Toll

The influential statistical model that predicted more than 100,000 deaths in the United States from COVID-19 by August has been revised. It now predicts far fewer daily deaths thanks to the unexpected finding more Americans heeded statewide stay-at-home orders than was initially expected.

The model developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School Of Medicine was issued April 2. It was widely cited by health experts leading the U.S. fight against COVID-19 and president Donald Trump as the basis for their claims the country might suffer anywhere from 100,000 to 240,000 deaths from the disease over the next five months.

One of the assumptions on which the old IHME model was based is half of all Americans would stay confined inside their homes as the pandemic raged. But because of enforced statewide stay-at-home orders, some 90% of Americans have voluntarily chosen to stay indoors.

This finding plus a "massive infusion of new data" led to the lower and revised casualty estimates, said the model's maker, Dr. Christopher Murray, who is also an IHME director. As with the original model, the new one predicts how social distancing measures will affect the trajectory of COVID-19 in the U.S.

The new model now predicts COVID-19 will kill 81,766 people in the U.S. until August compared to the previous estimate of 93,000. It also estimates 141,000 hospital beds for COVID-19 patients compared to the earlier 260,000.

The new model also predicts daily U.S. deaths to peak on April 26 at 3,130 instead of April 14 at 2,341 deaths. It estimates COVID-19 will kill 81,766 people in the U.S. by August 4.

The revisions were expected since the IHME researchers that developed the model have long said it will change based on new realities on the ground that will lead to revised assumptions. The latest predictions confirm the immense value social distancing plays in stemming the rising tide of infections. It assumes social distancing will continue until August, in the process preventing thousands of more deaths than would have otherwise occurred.

On the other hand, the Trump administration's current guidelines say social distancing will end on April 30. Dr. Murray said the consequences for the U.S. might be dire if social distancing measures are relaxed or ignored too soon.

"The US will see greater death tolls, the death peak will be later, the burden on hospitals will be much greater and the economic costs will continue to grow," he pointed out.