The Golden State Warriors will meet the Denver Nuggets in the first round of the 2022 NBA playoffs. The betting odds point to Golden State winning the series, but there are reasons why Denver could make for a popular upset prediction.

The Warriors are a -250 favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook to beat the Nuggets in their first-round series. Denver has +205 odds to defeat Golden State and advance to the second round of the playoffs.

When healthy, the Warriors are clearly the better team. That hasn’t been the case since March 16 when Stephen Curry sprained his foot. Golden State’s scoring and assist leader has been out for a month straight, and his status for Game 1 might not be determined until very close to tip-off.

Golden State is 8-10 when Curry doesn’t play and 45-19 when the point guard is in the starting lineup. The Warriors' 16th-ranked offense is a bottom-tier unit without Curry on the court. Despite a mid-season shooting slump and missing 18 games, Curry still led all NBA players with 285 three-pointers made on 38% shooting from behind the arc.

Even if Curry is available for the entire series, the Nuggets are likely to have the best player on the court.

Nikola Jokic is probably headed for his second straight MVP award. Jokic became the first player in league history to total at least 2,000 points, 1,000 rebounds and 500 assists in the same season.

Jokic needed that type of season to get Denver into the playoffs. Missing Jamal Murray for the entire season and Michael Porter Jr. for all but nine games, the Nuggets haven’t been at full strength in a year.

Denver might have the best player in the series, but Golden State could have the next three or four best players.

The Nuggets went 3-1 against the Warriors in the regular season. Curry didn’t suit up for one of those losses. Draymond Green was sidelined for all three defeats.

Green might still be the NBA’s best defensive player. The Warriors rank second in the league, giving up 106.6 points per 100 possessions. The Nuggets are 15th with a 111.5 defensive rating.

Curry might not be 100% healthy to start the first round. With no back-to-back games on the playoff schedule, he could get better as the series moves along. Curry had 34 points on 21 shots in a 113-102 win over the Nuggets shortly before getting hurt.

Klay Thompson is averaging 36.7 points on 51.2% shooting from three-point range in his last three games, looking like his old All-Star-self. Jordan Poole is averaging 22.7 points on 60.9% shooting from three-point range in three games against Denver.

The Warriors are 27-21 against teams with a winning record. The Nuggets are just 20-26 against above .500 opponents.

Jokic can push Golden State to the brink, but he can’t overcome a championship-caliber team by himself.

Series Prediction: Golden State in seven

Klay Thompson #11of the Golden State Warriors
Klay Thompson #11of the Golden State Warriors Getty Images | Ezra Shaw
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