Warriors vs. Raptors Game 2: Prediction, Odds, Why Golden State Will Tie Up The 2019 NBA Finals

The Golden State Warriors are in unfamiliar territory. For the first time since their dynasty began five years ago, the defending champions are down 1-0 in the NBA Finals.

Golden State hasn’t played a finals game under head coach Steve Kerr while trailing in the series since 2015. The Warriors were thoroughly outplayed by the Toronto Raptors in their 118-109 Game 1 loss, even as Kawhi Leonard had a relatively underwhelming performance.

With home-court advantage, Toronto is a two-point favorite in Game 2, according to OddsShark. Golden State will get another chance to steal a win on the road Sunday night at Scotiabank Arena.

Kevin Durant will sit again as he recovers from the calf strain he suffered in the second round of the playoffs. This series was never going to be easy, and the two teams might be close to evenly matched with the Warriors’ best player still sidelined.

Did we learn anything from the series opener that should affect the way we view Game 2? A win for the Raptors wasn’t exactly a shock, considering they were favored after beating the Milwaukee Bucks four straight times in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Toronto has to be feeling good about winning a game in which Leonard missed nine of his 14 field-goal attempts. Golden State put pressure on Leonard and forced the Raptors’ role players to beat them. Toronto’s superstar wasn’t able to carry them as he has for much of the playoffs, but the likes of Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol and Fred VanVleet stepped up in a big way.

Siakam and Gasol almost certainly won’t make 74 percent of their combined shots for a second consecutive game. Leonard, on the other hand, could have a better shooting performance.

Don’t expect the Warriors to change their defensive strategy against Leonard. The team seemed content with the way they switched pick-and-rolls and double-teamed the Raptors’ superstar. Open shooters and fast-break points ultimately made Golden State pay.

“The biggest thing for me was our transition defense was just awful and that’s the game,” Kerr told reporters after Game 1. “That’s the No. 1 priority when you play Toronto. You have to take care of their transition and we gave up 24 fast-break points, we turned it over 17 times. So, that’s the game, really.”

A lack of focus on defense has hurt the Warriors at various times this season. It hasn’t been much of an issue when the team’s back has been against the wall or when Durant has been sidelined. Those two things often go hand in hand.

The Warriors should be ready to slow down the Raptors in Game 2. Coming off 10 days of rest might have been an issue Thursday night. Golden State was outscored by 10 points in the first half and beat Toronto by a point in the second half.

Any rust should be gone Sunday, putting the Warriors in a better position to leave Canada with a victory.

Stephen Curry continues to shoot lights out. The Raptors’ defense made him work to get good looks, but he still ended Game 1 with 34 points on 18 field-goal attempts and four-of-nine from three-point range.

Curry is in the middle of a historic run with at least 33 points in six straight playoff games.

Klay Thompson had 21 points on eight-of-17 shooting. Draymond Green posted a triple-double, though he did so while missing seven of his nine shots. Green and Andre Iguodala missed all six of their attempts from behind the arc.

As Toronto’s secondary scorers shot well and made big baskets whenever Golden State mounted a run, the Warriors’ role players didn’t make the Raptors pay for hounding the Splash Brothers. Toronto’s help defenders also did a better job of recovering and making sure Golden State’s looks were contested.

Odds are the gap between the non-star players won’t be as wide in Game 2. The Warriors will still have to work hard on offense because that’s what the Raptors’ defense forces you to do, but Toronto won’t get as many easy shots.

Green should look more like the defensive monster he was in the Western Conference Finals. Siakam won’t be the best player on the floor.

Those two differences alone could swing Game 2 in Golden State’s favor.

Game 2 Prediction: Golden State over Toronto, 112-105