Warriors vs. Rockets Prediction: Can Houston Prevent Golden State From Reaching Another NBA Finals?

When the Golden State Warriors were in the midst of their record-setting 73-win campaign during the 2015-2016 NBA season, there appeared to be one team that could prevent them from reaching the NBA Finals. The San Antonio Spurs were nearly as unbeatable, going 67-15 in the regular season, and the basketball world patiently waited for the two teams to meet in the Western Conference Finals.

The long-anticipated series never happened as San Antonio was upset in the second round. The Oklahoma City Thunder ended up giving the defending champions all they could handle, though Golden State advanced for yet another showdown with LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers.

In the 2017-2018 season, it’s the Houston Rockets that have been thought to be the only real roadblock standing in the way of another title run for the kings of the West. Unlike the 2016 Spurs, the Rockets have held up their end of the bargain, setting up a conference finals matchup that has been in the works since last summer.

Acquiring Chris Paul in a June trade with the Los Angeles Clippers transformed the Rockets from a very good team into the Warriors’ biggest threat. Houston now has two top-10 players in Paul and James Harden. Harden will likely win the NBA MVP award after putting up historic offensive numbers. The Rockets also had a top-10 defense in the regular season.

It didn’t take long for Houston to prove that they wouldn’t back down from Golden State. They won by a point at Oracle Arena in the season opener and went on to win a league-high 65 games, earning home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. The Warriors cruised to a 58-win season as their stars battled injuries and were seemingly uninterested in dominating the regular season.

Golden State might have won 15 fewer games than they did two years ago, but they have Kevin Durant this time. The Warriors have won two of the last three championships—they only haven’t won three straight titles because they infamously blew a 3-1 lead in the 2016 NBA Finals—and they were nearly perfect in Durant’s first postseason with the team, going 16-1 in the playoffs.

Stephen Curry appears to be healthy after missing more than five weeks with an MCL sprain. In large part due to his return, the Warriors are nearly 1/2 favorites with -195 odds to win the series, via BetOnline. The Rockets are +170 underdogs after being the best team all season.

Houston and Golden State have performed as expected this postseason. They both needed just five games to win each of their first two series. All but one of the Rockets’ eight victories have come by double digits. The Warriors outscored the Spurs and Pelicans by an average of 15 points per win.

There shouldn’t be much stock put in their three regular-season matchups. Houston won the season series 2-1, though Durant and Harden both failed to play in Golden State’s one victory.

Clint Capela doesn’t seem to agree. Houston’s center declared that the Rockets were the better team after they defeated Houston 116-108 on Jan. 20.

“We're confident because we know if we're doing what we're supposed to do, we're going to beat them,” Rockets center Clint Capela told ESPN. “I think that if we're doing what we're supposed to do on defense -- all the switches, the weak side -- and keep playing our offense by keeping that mentality all game long, we have the weapons to beat them.”

Perhaps Houston has been eying a matchup with Golden State for the last several months. The Warriors entered the season as the prohibitive favorites, and they are in the midst of one of the best four-year spans in NBA history.

“We won two championships in three years. We're not about to run off talking about how bad we want to play somebody,” Draymond Green told reporters after Golden State clinched their second-round series victory. “We want to win another championship, and it don't matter who's in the way of that. If you're in the way of that, then you happen to be in the way. But we're not about to run around like, ‘Yeah, we want to play them in the conference finals.’ For what? It doesn't matter to us who we play. However, we got them. All right, now let's get it. We get to it now.”

The truth is that no one—not even this Houston team—has much of a chance to defeat Golden State.

As much as the Rockets have improved, the Warriors probably still have the series’ two-best players. Green and Klay Thompson rank among the league’s top 20 players. Houston doesn’t have anyone in that group outside of Harden and Paul.

Mike D’Antoni’s system that revolves around isolation basketball produced the NBA’s No.1 offense. Harden has become nearly impossible to stop one-on-one, and that’s opened up the court for Houston’s shooters to get plenty of open looks each game. The Rockets are first with 14.1 three-pointers per game this postseason.

The Warriors have versatile defenders unlike any other team in the league. Durant and Green both played well enough to get votes for Defensive Player of the Year. Thompson is one of the league’s best defensive shooting guards. Even Curry is an underrated defender, averaging 1.8 steals per game over the course of his career.

Slowing down Houston’s offense even a little bit could be enough for Golden State to control the series. The Warriors have the best shooter in history and the toughest player to defend in the West.

Curry and Durant were unguardable at times against New Orleans last round. Green is playing his best basketball of the season, recording at least nine assists in all five second-round games. Thompson has made over 43 percent of his threes.

Houston should prove to be a tough out, but Golden State is still simply too good.

Series Prediction: Golden State in five