Washington Redskins vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Monday Night Football Prediction, Betting Odds

Week 4 of the 2017 NFL season ends when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Washington Redskins on "Monday Night Football." The Chiefs are one of two remaining undefeated teams, and the Redskins improved their record to 2-1 with an impressive win in primetime last week.

The latest betting odds favor Kansas City by 6.5 points at home, via OddsShark, and the over/under is 49.5 Here is a closer look at the Week 4 matchup, including a prediction against the spread:

Why the Chiefs could cover the spread

Kansas City continues to roll along, taking sole possession of first place in the AFC West with a win over the Chargers in Week 3. While the Raiders and Broncos both suffered losses when they hit the road a week ago, the Chiefs remained perfect, finding yet a new way to stay out of the loss column.

After averaging 35 points per game in the first two weeks, Kansas City won on the strength of their defense in L.A. The Chiefs picked off Philip Rivers three times, forcing him to have his worst game of the young season. Kirk Cousins could have a similar experience at Arrowhead Stadium.

Only two teams have held opposing quarterbacks to a worse passer rating than Kansas City, and they’ve done so against strong competition. Tom Brady completed less than half of his passes in a season-opening loss to the Chiefs. Carson Wentz’s 83.0 passer rating was his lowest of the season by 10 points. Rivers had passer ratings of 99.6 and 110.6 before posting a 37.2 rating against Kansas City.

As Cousins goes, so do the Redskins. Since he became Washington’s full-time starter in 2015, the Redskins are 0-11 when he posts a passer rating of less than 85.0, the latest such example coming in Week 1 when Philadelphia beat Washington at FedExField by two touchdowns.

If Cousins plays poorly and Kareem Hunt continues his hot start, the Chiefs will have no problem winning by at least one touchdown. The rookie’s been the league MVP, thus far, leading the NFL with 401 rushing yards and 538 yards from scrimmage. Hunt has one rush for better than 50 yards in each of his first three games, and the big-play ability of both Hunt and Tyreek Hill could spell trouble for Washington’s defense.

Why the Redskins could cover the spread

The team that was expected to be the NFC East’s worst has hung in there with the Eagles and Cowboys. Washington is tied with Philadelphia and Dallas atop the division, coming off one of the most impressive wins by any team this season.

After ranking 28th in yards allowed a year ago, it might be time to start taking Washington’s defense seriously. The unit completely shut down the Raiders in Week 3, limiting them to just 128 total yards of offense. The week prior, the Redskins kept the Rams to 20 points, which is no small task considering L.A. has put up more than 40 points in their two other games. Philadelphia had some success in Washington in the season opener, though they only scored 23 points when discounting a late fumble that the Eagles returned for a touchdown.

Maybe the Redskins can do the same to the Chiefs, who might not be able to keep up this pace on offense for much longer. That especially goes for Alex Smith, who is somehow leading all quarterbacks with a whopping 132.7 passer rating. The 13-year veteran is going to come crashing back down to earth at some point, and it could very well happen Monday night.

The Redskins are fifth in total defense, ranking 12th against the pass and second against the run. They held Marshawn Lynch to just 18 yards in Week 3.

Allowing Cousins to stay in the pocket could help Washington move the ball effectively. The quarterback had a perfect passer rating against Oakland when he wasn’t pressured, according to Pro Football Focus. The Redskins’ offensive line has impressed in the early going, allowing the team to rank sixth in rushing yards and surrendering three sacks in the last two games.

Prediction

Washington won’t play nearly as well as they did a week ago, specifically on defense. Playing in one of the most difficult environments for any visiting team, the Redskins could have trouble containing Alex Smith’s array of weapons.

The Chiefs have been the NFL’s best team this season, picking up road wins against the defending champs and a division rival, as well as beating a playoff contender at home. Kansas City has won each game by at least seven points, and that trend should continue in Week 4.

Kansas City over Washington, 30-19