What Are The Odds Kevin Durant Leaves The Golden State Warriors In 2018 Free Agency?

Much of the discussion regarding this summer’s NBA free agency has surrounded the possible destinations for LeBron James. There’s been talk about where players like Paul George and DeMarcus Cousins could end up. Chris Paul’s future is now being reported on with the Houston Rockets out of the playoffs.

Kevin Durant’s impending free agency, however, hasn’t garnered many headlines. With the reigning NBA Finals MVP seemingly headed for a second championship in two years with the Golden State Warriors, almost no one appears to believe the star forward is leaving the Bay Area anytime soon.

Durant will have the choice to leave the Warriors this offseason. He’s got a one-year, $26.25 million player option for the 2018-2019 season that he’s expected to turn down in hopes of making more money next year.

What are the chances Durant’s new contract will come with a team other than Golden State? Bovada.lv has set the odds of Durant signing with another team at +400. He’s got -700 odds to play the first game of the 2018-2019 season with the Warriors.

It’s almost hard to believe the odds don’t favor Durant remaining in Golden State even more. The former MVP spent his first nine seasons with the Oklahoma City Thunder—they were the Seattle SuperSonics during his rookie campaign—reaching the NBA Finals once and winning no championships. He joined the Warriors in hopes of winning multiple titles and has helped turn the team into a dynasty.

Of course, it’s possible that Durant could decide to head elsewhere and try to win with a team on which he’s the clear top superstar. LeBron James is largely regarded as the only NBA player that undisputedly ranks ahead of Durant, but plenty of observers don’t believe Durant is even the best player on his own team. Stephen Curry has won two of the last four regular-season MVP awards, and a strong argument can be made that the point guard is Golden State’s most important player.

It seemed like LeBron James was a safe bet to return to the Miami Heat before the 2014 NBA Finals. He ended his four-year run with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh after four trips to the Finals and two championships.

Durant's Warriors are in a much better position to compete for future titles than James’ Heat. James left Miami for a Cavs’ team that had a rising superstar in Kyrie Irving, as well as an impending trade for All-Star Kevin Love.

Would Durant leave Golden State to join a team like the Los Angeles Lakers or Philadelphia 76ers that has cap space? Probably not, though the odds suggest it’s not impossible.