Where Does The Iran Deal Stand? Two Years Later, Trump Could Sabotage Landmark Agreement

The multilateral deal with Iran to limit its nuclear capabilities turned two years old Sunday, and while President Donald Trump likely won’t be able to follow through on his stated plans to “dismantle” it, he could soon help the U.S. to blatantly violate it.

If a group of senators from both parties get their way, the U.S. won’t be holding up its end of the agreement, which was finalized April 2, 2015, after foreign ministers from China, France, Germany, Russia, the U.K., the U.S. and the European Union relaxed sanctions against Tehran while opening it up to monitoring by the United Nations Security Council.

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Sen. Bob Corker, R.-Tenn., introduced a bill titled “Countering Iran’s Destabilizing Activities Act” to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee March 23, and by Tuesday, it had garnered 25 co-sponsors, 11 of whom were Democrats.

The bill would allow Trump to reinstate sanctions set to expire under the deal “if the President determines” that the individual or entity in question took part in “any activity that materially contributes to the activities of the Government of Iran with respect to its ballistic missile program” or “support by the Government of Iran for acts of international terrorism.” It also would require Trump to detail the successive sanctions he imposed on Iran in a report to the Senate every 180 days.

The National Iranian American Council railed against the proposal, which it said would “place President Trump’s trigger-happy finger on the ignition switch of a deadly conflict with Iran.”

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For its part, Tehran has mostly adhered to the agreement. The nation quickly shipped plutonium-producing materials outside of its borders amid worries of a violation from International Energy Agency Director Yukiya Amano. Later, a look at the deal’s fine print showed that Iran’s January ballistic missile test did not technically constitute any rule-breaking. Moderate Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, meanwhile, has managed to balance those foreign obligations with domestic pressure from both hardliners opposed to compromise with the U.S. and constituents frustrated with the country's economic woes, which the sanctions only exacerbated.

Defense Secretary James Mattis reportedly expressed his support of the deal during his January confirmation hearing, while EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Frederica Mogherini told reporters about a month later that Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had pledged to stick to the agreement during a meeting with her in Washington.

But the bill would give Trump both authority and a mandate to step up sanctions, and he ostensibly hasn’t been the deal’s biggest cheerleader.

What the legislation, and Trump alone, can’t do, however, is take the agreement apart, due to its multilateral nature.

“If unreasonable moves are made by Trump, and Iran continues to abide by the nuclear commitments, Europe, Russia, and China are highly likely to side with Iran,” Ellie Geranmayeh, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, recently told Foreign Policy, “and the unified stance on sanctions in pre-2013 days will be broken.”