White House Economist Contradicts Trump, Says Tariffs Depressed Economy

A newly released 435-page economic report manages to largely avoid discussing the economic downsides of Trump’s trade policies, but a recent press briefing from the president’s top economist paints a somewhat different picture.

At a presser held on the yearly Economic Report of the President, Trump’s head economist, Tomas Philipson, cited a study from the Federal Reserve speculating that the gross domestic product may have dropped by 1 percent. He was quick to point out, though, that these figures might not be accurate.

In the economic report, Philipson and Tyler Goodspeed, a fellow White House economist, wrote that, “uncertainty about trade policy is one often-cited culprit in the manufacturing slowdown.” Bloomberg reports that during the briefing, Philipson explained that “uncertainty generated by trade negotiations dampened investment.”

Despite Philipson’s less than optimistic remarks, he stopped short of proving specifics about market uncertainty and how it should be addressed. Instead, as he stated in his report, as Trump’s trade policies produce a “more balanced, reciprocal” economic climate over time, the global economy will grow.

Writing in the report, Philipson and Goodspeed argued other factors likely played a role in creating this uncertainty. “These reasons make it difficult to isolate the effects of trade policy uncertainty, and possibly result in an upward bias of its effects on the global economy,” the report said.

In other words, by Trump’s own economists’ admission, the various tariffs implemented by Trump aren’t benefiting Americans as much as he has claimed. That represents a contradiction of the president’s statements, as he has consistently insisted that his tariffs have only served to bolster the economy.

Careful to stay in the president’s good graces, however, Philipson told reporters during the briefing that “three years into the Trump administration, the U.S. economy continues to outperform pre-2016 election expectations.”

Though he didn’t say as much specifically, Philipson is no doubt referring to a recent clash between Trump and former President Barack Obama after the latter stated that the stimulus package under his administration laid the groundwork for the steadily growing economy since. Trump then disputed Obama’s claims, accusing the former president of trying to steal credit for his trade policies.