Who Will Win The 2024 Presidential Election? Voters Disenchanted With Joe Biden, Donald Trump

Two years before the next U.S. presidential election, voters are signaling they want new blood atop the party tickets and not a rematch of the 2020 election.

The sentiment comes as President Joe Biden has seen sagging approval ratings and former President Donald Trump faces potential criminal charges for the Jan. 6 Capitol Riots. Recent polling shows voter fatigue for both candidates, who are both considered leading contenders in 2024.

A New York Times/Siena College poll found that Republicans were nearly split on whether they wanted to see Trump return as their party's standard-bearer. About 49% said they would support him against 47% who indicated support for another candidate. Among other possible options, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis fared the best after Trump with nearly 25% support and higher numbers among college-educated and younger Republicans compared to Trump.

Biden did not fare much better within his own party. On Monday, the New York Times reported that 64% of Democrats would prefer to see another candidate over Biden in 2024. Support among the core groups that make up the Democratic base has crumbled, particularly among younger voters. Biden still performing relatively well with Black Americans, but his approval ratings overall remained around 38%, according to an average of polls from the FiveThirtyEight blog.

Going further, a Politico-Morning Consult poll found 48% of voters surveyed said Trump should not run again and 46% said the same of Biden.

What this means for the upcoming presidential election remains uncertain. Biden has maintained that he is running again in 2024 despite increasing chatter among Democratic operatives and donors about seeking an alternative candidate. Trump has not yet committed to a run before the end of the November midterms, but he has toyed with announcing earlier to assert himself against any potential Republican rivals.

Still, the current mood of the electorate does not bode particularly well for either the current or former president. Economic issues, particularly inflation, top the political agenda which will naturally weigh down heavier on Biden as the incumbent. However, Trump’s grievances related to his defeat in the 2020 election do not appear to hold a galvanizing effect beyond his most faithful supporters.

Biden is viewed as the stronger candidate if the 2024 election is a rematch. The Times/Siena College poll found Biden ahead of Trump in a hypothetical matchup, 44% to 41%.

The Washington Post recently listed potential nominees for both parties. For Democrats, the list included Vice-President Kamala Harris, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, and California Gov. Gavin Newsom. For Republicans, the list included former Vice-President Mike Pence, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu.