Who Will Win The Democratic Nomination? Mayor Pete Has Lead In A Key State Poll But Trails Biden, Warren, Sanders

South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg leads the latest Democratic presidential primary poll out of New Hampshire, evidence he's surging in early states.

The poll, conducted by Boston National Public Radio Station station WBUR, indicates Buttigieg tops the field in New Hampshire, netting the support of 18% of voters. Former Vice President Joe Biden comes in second, earning the support of 17% of voters. Meanwhile, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., is at 15% while Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., is at 12%.

The New Hampshire primary, the first primary of the presidential season, is set for Feb. 11.

In the RealClearPolitics aggregation of New Hampshire polling, Buttigieg now sits at second, with 17.7%. Sanders is in first with 19% while Biden is at 14.3% and Warren is at 13.3%.

In Iowa, which holds the first caucus of the Democratic nomination derby Feb. 3, Buttigieg remains in the top tier but is in 3rd place, with the support of 18% of voters in the latest Emerson College poll. Biden is in first in that poll, with the support of 23% of voters while Sanders is in 2nd with 22% backing him. Warren is in a distant fourth place at 12%, and it is notable that Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., who has long lagged behind the frontrunners, is now in 5th place with 10%.

Buttigieg's surge into a competitive position in the top tier of candidates is limited to early states. In national polls, he continues to sit far behind other candidates -- 9% in a Quinnipac poll released this week that indicated Biden continues to lead the field, with the support of 29% of voters. Buttigeig also is at fourth place in an Economist/YouGov national poll released this week, clocking in at 11%.

While the New Hampshire poll is good news for Buttigieg's campaign, the pollster who conducted it cautioned that the situation in the state remains fluid.

"What's remarkable about this is how close it remains," said Steve Koczela, the president of The MassINC Polling Group, which administered the poll for WBUR. "We've got three candidates, all within three points of each other — and Elizabeth Warren not that far behind, right there in that top tier. Basically, [this is] a race that could go in any direction."