Wholesale Prices Hit 11.3%, Raising Concerns The Fed Will Bump Rates 1%

Prices for wholesale goods in the United States charged forward by 11.3% in June from the same time last year as inflation continues to surge back across the economy.

On Thursday, the U.S. Labor Department released its latest data for the Producer Price Index (PPI) and it found that wholesale prices rose by double digits again in June following a jump of 10.8% recorded in May.

As in previous months, the surge in wholesale inflation was largely driven by rising energy prices. Although oil and gas prices have fallen in recent weeks, they peaked in mid-June, with gas topping the $5 per gallon mark.

According to the Labor Department, nearly 90% of the June increase can be traced to a 10% jump in prices for final demand energy. In contrast, the indexes for final demand goods less foods and energy advanced 0.5%, and final demand foods rose only 0.1%.

The PPI numbers come one day after a similarly brutal Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading for June that saw inflation climb to 9.1%. Both figures suggest a dwindling of purchasing power for many American households, a fact that has contributed to a deterioration in consumer confidence.

The news may prompt a stronger reaction from the Federal Reserve. For the last several months, the Fed has embarked on a hawkish course that has seen three interest rate hikes since March and an end to pandemic-era stimulus spending to take the heat out of the economy.

Already some Wall Street traders are placing bets that the Fed will execute a full 1% rate hike this month in an effort to further tamp down inflation. The move would likely add to fears in the market about the possibility of an oncoming recession.

Because of this posture, the Fed’s decision-making has been possibly the single biggest variable on whether the U.S. economy will tip into recession. Fed chief Jerome Powell insists that the goal remains a “soft landing” where inflation falls without crashing the economy, but doing so will prove to be a difficult task.

“Inflation is still accelerating on a month-to-month basis, the pressures are pervasive, and in recent months they are more and more focused in categories that tend to be persistent, wrote Amherst Pierpont Securities Chief Economist Stephen Stanley​, according to Barrons. "In short, it is the worst of all worlds for policymakers."

A full point hike is not a far-off possibility. The Fed’s most recent hike in June already saw rates go up by 0.75%, the largest seen since 1994.