Why Did Paul Ryan Retire? Who Could Replace Him As House Speaker?

White House Speaker Paul Ryan had been hinting for the past few months he was not interested in seeking re-election in November’s midterms, he confirmed his decision through a press conference in the Capitol Hill on Wednesday.

So why is the Ryan retiring?:

• He wants to spend more time with his family. “If I am here for one more term, my kids will only have ever known me as a weekend dad,” Ryan said at the press conference, Rolling Stone reported. “I just can’t let that happen.”
• He has accomplished all that he could during his time as the Speaker. “You realize something when you take this job,” Ryan told reporters, CNN reported. “It's a big job with a lot riding on you ... but you also know this is not a job that does not last forever. ... You realize you hold the office for just a small part of our history. So you better make the most of it. ... I like to think I've done my part, my little part in history to set us on a better course.”

• It is a job that he was forced to take and not something that he wanted. “You all know that I did not seek this job. I took it reluctantly,” he said. “I didn’t want this job at first … I really, actually didn’t.”

Personal aside, there are a number of politically-influenced reasons also behind his decision:

• In the upcoming re-election in southern Wisconsin district, Ryan would be up against Randy "Iron Stache" Bryce, a former Army sergeant who works as an ironworker near Racine, Wisconsin. Despite the fact the area has been a GOP territory for the last decade, things began changing when union man Bryce came into the picture and quickly rose to popularity. Although the Republicans refused to fuel rumors that Ryan was afraid of Bryce, retiring voluntarily gave the former a chance to bow out with his dignity intact without risking what could be a humiliating defeat.
• If the mid-term election does not swing in favor of the Republicans, they might have to surrender the seat of Speaker of the House to a Democrat, which would have been another humiliating situation for Ryan. However, he seemed to be pretty confident his party will not be defeated in November. "I have every confidence that I’ll be handing this gavel onto the next Republican speaker of the House next year,” he said in the press conference.
• Lastly, rumors of Ryan’s presidential aspirations have circulated since the 2016 elections, despite the fact he has repeatedly rubbished them. If he was indeed preparing to run for office in 2020, distancing himself from President Donald Trump’s political narrative would not be a bad idea.

The leadership position to be vacated by Ryan will most likely be filled either by Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-LA), or Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) — the two top contenders for the spot. The race to fill the seat will not be easy.
“Here’s the reality,” New York Rep. Chris Collins told reporters Wednesday, Slate reported. “To be speaker, you need 218 votes. To be a leader, minority or majority leader, you need about 110. So they’re two very different races, and that’s what we saw when Boehner left, who could garner 218 votes.”