Why The Houston Texans Can Beat The Kansas City Chiefs In 2020 NFL Divisional Playoff Game

The Kansas City Chiefs are rightfully big favorites against the Houston Texans in the 2020 NFL divisional playoffs. That doesn’t mean the AFC West champions are a lock to reach the next round.

Houston is a dangerous opponent, and there are plenty of reasons to believe they can win in Kansas City.

For starters, the Texans have already done it, and not too long ago. Houston left Arrowhead Stadium with a 31-24 victory in Week 6.

That was the Chiefs’ second loss at home in as many games. In Week 5, the Indianapolis Colts won in Kansas City 19-13.

Both AFC South teams beat Kansas City by using the same recipe: running the ball down the Chiefs’ throat and keeping Patrick Mahomes off the field.

Indianapolis had 45 rushes for 180 yards in their victory, possessing the ball for more than 37 minutes. Houston recorded 192 rushing yards and their time of possession approached 40 minutes.

There’s no doubt that Kansas City’s defense improved over the course of the year, but the team is still susceptible to a good rushing attack. The Chiefs finished the regular season ranked No. 26 in run defense and No. 29 in opponents’ yards per carry.

Aaron Jones averaged 5.2 yards per carry when the Green Bay Packers beat Kansas City in Week 10. Derrick Henry ran for 188 yards when the Tennessee Titans beat the Chiefs in Week 12.

The Texans finished No. 9 in both rushing yards and yards per rush. Carlos Hyde had his second-best rushing game of the season in Kansas City, picking up 116 yards on the ground.

Houston ran for 141 yards in the wild-card win over the Buffalo Bills. Deshaun Watson led the Texans with 55 rushing yards.

Watson came up big for Houston when the team needed him most, leading the team back from a 16-0 second-half deficit. He miraculously avoided a sack to hit Taiwan Jones for a 34-yard pass that set up the game-winning field goal in overtime.

Mahomes is the reigning MVP, but Watson can outplay any quarterback in a given game.

Watson was better than Mahomes three months ago when he completed 71.4% of his passes and led the Texans back from a 17-3 deficit. He had a 140.7 passer rating in a victory against the New England Patriots. Houston’s quarterback had a 114.3 passer rating in New Orleans in the season opener and was a 58-yard Will Lutz field goal away from upsetting Drew Brees and the Saints.

Will Fuller might return after sitting against Buffalo with a groin injury. He’s a deep threat that makes Watson and the Texans’ offense even more dangerous. Houston is averaging 30.3 points in the last seven games that Fuller has played.

Bill O’Brien often gets criticized for his in-game decisions, but Andy Reid doesn’t exactly have the best postseason resume with Kansas City. The Chiefs are 1-3 in home playoff games under Reid. They’ve suffered a January loss at Arrowhead Stadium in each of the last three years.

It won’t be stunning if that streak extends to four Sunday afternoon.