Why The New England Patriots Are Betting Favorites Over The Los Angeles Rams In Super Bowl 2019

The Los Angeles Rams were better than the New England Patriots in the 2018 NFL season, finishing with two more wins and a better point differential. L.A. had better odds to win the Super Bowl than New England for most of the season, and they were given a much better chance to win the championship when the playoffs began.

When the AFC Championship Game between the Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs went final, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook named the Rams one-point favorites in Super Bowl LIII. That quickly changed, however, as the betting public showed overwhelming support for New England.

With the Super Bowl still 12 days away, the betting line is up to 2.5 points, per OddsShark. The Patriots are almost certain to remain decided favorites, despite the numbers that might indicate the Rams are the better team.

It’s certainly no surprise that seemingly everyone is picking the Patriots to beat the Rams. New England is the greatest dynasty in NFL history—maybe in sports history—with five titles since 2002 and four Super Bowl appearances since 2015. The Patriots will play in their ninth Super Bowl in the last 17 years.

The one time the public doubted the Patriots, they overcame the odds. New England blew out the Los Angeles Chargers in the divisional playoffs when most of the bets were on L.A., and they beat the Chiefs as three-point underdogs.

Los Angeles entered the season with high expectations, which they exceeded throughout the year, including their road win over the New Orleans Saints in the NFC Championship Game. Still, this Rams’ team has not proven they can win a title, especially against the greatest quarterback-head coach duo of all time.

Tom Brady solidified his spot as the GOAT two years ago when he won his fifth ring. Bill Belichick continues to prove why he’s the best coach ever with 18 straight winning seasons.

Sean McVay is thought to be a top coach, arguably the best in the NFL besides Belichick. The gap between Brady and Rams’ quarterback Jared Goff is significant. The third-year player hasn’t exactly been overly impressive this postseason, and he has a 78.9 passer rating in three career playoff starts.

Returning Super Bowl teams typically aren’t underdogs. The last seven teams to reach the Super Bowl after playing in the game the previous year have been favored. The Patriots were even slight underdogs in 2015 when they took on the defending champion Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX.

In their nine trips to the Super Bowl during the Brady-Belichick era, the Patriots have only been underdogs twice: against Seattle and in their first Super Bowl appearance against the then-St. Louis Rams in 2002.

New England won both Super Bowls as an underdog. They are 3-3 as Super Bowl favorites.