Why The Phillies Might Pick Bryce Harper Over Manny Machado In 2019 MLB Free Agency

The Philadelphia Phillies have long been expected to sign either Bryce Harper or Manny Machado in the 2019 MLB offseason. It had previously been reported that the team preferred the star infielder, but the latest rumors indicate that may no longer be the case.

According to multiple reports, the odds of Philadelphia giving Harper a record-setting contract have increased since members of the front office met with the outfielder this past weekend.

Why might Philadelphia be having a change of heart? Fancred’s Jon Heyman named the team’s acquisition of Jean Segura, the Washington Nationals’ acquisition of Patrick Corbin and Harper’s success against the Phillies as a few reasons that could push Philadelphia to back up the Brink’s truck for the outfielder.

While Philadelphia could certainly find a spot for both free agents, Harper is the better fit for the team’s roster. Even after signing Andrew McCutchen, the Phillies have a starting outfield spot open now that slugger Rhys Hoskins is moving back to first base.

The Phillies are perfectly fine on the left side of the infield. Machado would be a major upgrade over third baseman Maikel Franco, though he was productive for Philadelphia in 2018 with a .270 batting average and 22 home runs in 131 games. The Phillies are set at shortstop with Segura, who made the 2018 AL All-Star team and is under contract for at least two more seasons.

Philadelphia has been plenty active this offseason by trading for Segura and signing both McCutchen and reliever David Robertson. The rest of the NL East has improved their rosters, as well, and signing Harper would directly hurt one of the best teams in the division.

Washington outbid Philadelphia for Corbin, who was the best pitcher in free agency. If the Phillies don’t sign Harper, he’s likely to return to the Nationals, potentially making them the favorites in the NL East.

Philadelphia probably doesn’t have to worry about Machado going to another team in their division. The star infielder will likely end up with the Chicago White Sox or New York Yankees if he doesn’t sign with the Phillies.

Machado has played poorly in his few games at Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park, hitting .179/.281/.393 in 32 career at-bats. Harper has hit .268/.365/.564 with 14 home runs in 179 at-bats at the Phillies’ ballpark. That’s Harper’s highest slugging percentage in any stadium that he’s played more than 20 games.

It might be fair to call Machado the safer bet when talking about a lengthy contract. He’s been a better defender than Harper with more consistent production over the past few seasons. Machado will almost certainly come cheaper, too.

But money doesn’t seem to be much of an issue for the Phillies, and Harper has the biggest upside.

Sure, Harper’s had a few down seasons. He’s also been the youngest unanimous MVP in MLB history and posted an OPS north of 1.000 twice since 2015. Machado has never finished higher than fourth in MVP voting and only once had an OPS above .900.

Some have speculated that the Phillies could land both Harper and Machado, but that scenario appears to be highly unlikely.

With Philadelphia seemingly willing to give Harper and Machado more money than anyone else, the decision might ultimately be theirs.