Will Donald Trump Win In 2020? Major Investment Bank Explains Why Election May Not Rest On Economy

Strategists from investment banking company Morgan Stanley said Monday in a note to investors that the relatively strong U.S. economy doesn’t necessarily mean that President Trump will win a second term.

“The most common misconception among investors we talk to is that solid economic growth assures the president’s re-election,” the strategists said in the note, which included the company’s head of U.S. policy strategy Michael Zezas. “Our take: be reactive, not proactive, and let plausible policy paths guide you.”

The note also comments on Trump’s poor performance in the polls.

“We have no precedent for an incumbent with a good economy but weak poll numbers,” the note continued.

The strategists believe that there is not enough evidence to suggest that a good economy alone is sufficient enough for Trump to win a second term. Trump’s approval ratings have been consistently below 50% since March 2017.

The U.S. economy grew at a relatively strong 2.1% in the third quarter of 2019, with information on the fourth quarter not yet published. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said that unemployment stood at a low 3.5% in November.

Yet, there are also many risks to Trump’s re-election campaign. The recent killing of Iranian commander Qassim Soleimani by a U.S. airstrike has some worried about a potential war with Iran, which hurt Trump’s chances.

The trade war with China could also escalate again, despite a “phase one” deal likely being signed on Jan. 15. There could also be new revelations during the Senate impeachment trial, which could provide more information about Trump’s controversial dealings with Ukraine.

Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and won three important swing states — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — by about 78,000 total votes.