Will Iran Attack Israel To Retaliate For Soleimani’s Death?

While many Israelis cheered U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to assassinate Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad last week, there is some disagreement over the prospect of Iran retaliating against its bitterest enemy, Israel.

“When a key enemy unit loses its top strategist, policy-maker, shadow diplomat and symbolic brand it surely is a huge setback,” said Assaf Orion, a former head of strategic planning for the Israeli military’s planning directorate. “President Trump has brought to an end the rule of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi on the radical Sunni side and now Soleimani from the Shiite terror set, and that’s quite an impressive achievement.”

Soleimani was viewed as an existential threat to Israel.

As the chief of the Quds force, a unit of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, Soleimani was dedicated to helping Israel’s enemies in Lebanon, Syria and the Gaza Strip through the formation of proxy militias. Iran has long supported Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias in Syria and Hamas in Gaza.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has continually warned Europe and the U.S. about the dangers posed by Iran, and said Teheran raised those stakes by developing a nuclear power program. Unsurprisingly, Netanyahu – who has frequently compared the Iranian regime to Nazi Germany – supported the airstrike against Soleimani.

“I want to clarify again -- Israel is completely on the side of the U.S. in its struggle for security, peace and self-defense,” said Netanyahu, who has other worries: He was indicted on charges of fraud, bribery and breach of trust in November and is facing the third election in a year because of his inability to form a government.

Even Netanyahu’s most prominent political opponent Benny Gantz praised Trump, saying his decision to kill Soleimani was an “appropriate response to anyone responsible for the murder of countless innocent people and for undermining global stability.”

Expressing a dissenting view was Ofer Cassif, the sole Jewish member of the Arab Joint List, a coalition of Arab political parties in Israel, who declared: “Those who pop open champagne today do not understand that killing Soleimani can lead to an attack against Israel. If American bullying leads to loss of Israeli life, it will be on the hands of Trump and his fellow offender Netanyahu.”

Indeed, as a strong U.S. ally – as well as the target of a constant stream of threats from Iran – some in Israel worry it could suffer retaliatory attacks by Teheran.

Mourners at funeral processions for Soleimani both in Iran and Iraq shouted “Death to Israel" while Iranian Gen. Gholamali Abuhamzeh warned the city of Tel Aviv was “within the reach of the Islamic Republic.”

Abuhamzeh, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the southern province of Kerman, further said American and “Zionist officials should suffer from stress, and wonder when and how Iran will exact revenge for the blood of General Soleimani.”

A former leader of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, Mohsen Rezaee, alleged Israel had somehow informed the U.S. of Soleimani’s whereabouts prior to his killing.

Netanyahu told his Security Cabinet Monday Israel had nothing to do with the hit on Soleimani and must not get caught up in this imbroglio. Netanyahu reportedly instructed his ministers to say as little as possible to the media on the subject to keep Israel out of any public discussions of the airstrike.

Moreover, Yosef Cohen, the director of Mossad, the national intelligence agency of Israel, and Maj. Gen. Tamir Hayman, the head of military intelligence told cabinet ministers that for now the likelihood of an Iranian retaliatory attack against Israel was low.

The intelligence chiefs also told the cabinet Iran will likely begin planning any retaliation on Tuesday when the period of mourning for Soleimani's death ends.

Giora Eiland, a former Israeli national security adviser, wrote in the Yediot Ahronot daily newspaper Monday it appears “Iran will not initiate a direct clash with Israel in the foreseeable future.”

But the statements made by Israeli security and intelligences chiefs contradicted warnings from both the U.S. and Canadian embassies in Israel that their citizens were in danger of a potential attack.

“Heightened tension in the Middle East may result in security risks to U.S. citizens abroad,” the U.S. Embassy said Monday. “Out of an abundance of caution, the embassy strongly encourages U.S. citizens to remain vigilant and take appropriate steps to increase their security awareness, as security incidents, including rocket fire, often take place without warning.”

There exists a precedent for such an event -- Iran has attacked Israel in the recent past.

In February 2018, Iran dispatched an armed drone from Syria to attack Israel, but it was intercepted and destroyed in Israeli airspace. The Israeli Air Force then attacked an air base in Syria that the Iranians used to launch the drone.

In November 2019, the Iranians fired four rockets from Syria toward the Golan Heights – these were intercepted by the Iron Dome, Israel’s mobile all-weather air defense system. Israel subsequently attacked Iranian forces stationed outside Damascus, killing at least 21 people.

Iran’s decision to ignore a 2015 nuclear deal presents a particularly grave problem for Israel – the Jewish state has long feared Teheran is developing nuclear weapons and has vowed to launch military strikes against Iran to destroy any facilities that might be constructing such a bomb.

Yoel Guzansky, an analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies, an Israeli think tank, said without foreign pressure Iran could be well on its way to making nuclear bombs.

“Where is the U.S.? Where are the Chinese, the Russians, the Europeans? Their voices are not being heard,” he said, adding Iran could move “very close, much closer to a bomb.”

Israel’s top think tank, the Institute for National Security Studies, warned of high risks of a war involving Iran, Israel and the U.S.

“[The killing of Soleimani], in our view, gives greater weight to the possibility of aggravation and the need to compose a new Israeli strategy,” the think tank said. “Killing Soleimani will create a new context and necessarily holds the potential for a strategic shift, whose scope and dimensions it is too early to predict. The killing of Soleimani could lead to a scenario that demands Israeli consideration and coordination with the United States: a large-scale war between Iran and the United States.”