Will Trump Be Impeached Or Resign? Odds Now Favor President Not Completing First Term

President Donald Trump is now more likely than not to fail to complete his first full term in the White House, according to oddsmakers. Following a tumultuous first month as president, it is the first time that the odds are now shorter on him departing before Jan. 20, 2021.

As of Wednesday, he had odds of -120 (5/6), which equates to a probability of 54.55 percent, not to go the distance, on gambling website Bovada. That compares to odds of -110 (10/11), the equivalent to 52.38 percent, to last the full four years.

Controversy has surrounded Trump’s adherence to the law since before he even took office. He has been criticized for failing to adequately divest from his business interests, with some law experts filing a lawsuit claiming it has put him in violation of the emoluments clause of the Constitution, which prohibits the president from receiving payments from foreign governments.

Accusations over Trump’s links to Russia also refuse to dissipate. After Michael Flynn resigned as national security adviser last week over discussions with the Russian ambassador, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said a Senate intelligence committee investigation was “highly likely.”

Meanwhile, a statement from the Democratic National Committee said that the affair was “already bigger than Watergate.”

A professor who has gained notoriety for correctly predicting the outcome of every presidential election since 1984, including 2016’s surprise outcome, has predicted that Trump will be impeached. Alan Lichtman, a professor at American University, is writing a book on the subject that publisher Harper Collins has said “focuses on the 45th President of the United States and his next forecast, that it is not a question of if President Trump will be impeached, but a question of when.”

One legislative body has already given its vocal support for impeachment.

"Unfortunately with this president it's oddly appropriate," said Jael Myrick of Richmond City Council in California’s Bay Area.

However, no president in U.S. history has been removed from office by impeachment. Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton were both impeached by the House of Representatives but acquitted by the Senate. Richard Nixon looked set to be impeached before he resigned the presidency in 1974. Nixon remains the only elected president to have failed to complete a full term for a reason other than death.