Will Trump Be Impeached Or Resign? Odds On President Not Completing First Term

He may be just three weeks into his term as president, but Donald Trump has already been the subject of considerable speculation over whether he will complete four years in the White House.

And oddsmakers are getting on on the action, too, setting up markets on if Trump will even make it to the 2020 election intact. It still remains likely in the eyes of the betting firms that the Republican will make it through his first term, currently rated as -275 (4/11) by online gambling site Bovada. That puts his chances at 73.3 percent. His odds of not going the distance are +180 (9/5), or 35.8 percent. Yet given that the prospect of not completing a term was rarely discussed under the administration of President Barack Obama, the numbers aren’t all that favorable for Trump.

Another number he would have been none too pleased to see in recent days was one showing that 40 percent of Americans support his impeachment, according to a survey by the left-leaning Public-Policy Polling (PPP). Only 48 percent said they would be opposed. Meanwhile, a petition on a website entitled ImpeachTrumpNow has more than 800,000 signatures.

Trump has fueled talk of impeachment even before he took office. Many legal scholars have argued that Trump was violating the Constitution the day he entered the White House by failing to adequately separate himself from his business interests. The foreign-emoluments clause prohibits any person holding office from benefiting from dealing with a foreign government.

There is also a petition on the White House website calling for Trump to resign, which has reached more than 90,000 signatures and needs just another 10,000 more to receive a response from the White House.

The only elected president not to complete a full term for a reason other than death was Richard Nixon, when he resigned under threat of impeachment in 1974.