Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio Polls: Trump Or Biden Leading In Key Swing States?

Democratic nominee Joe Biden is leading President Donald Trump in the key battleground states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio, according to polls released Wednesday.

A Marquette University Law School poll shows Biden with a 5-point lead over Trump in Wisconsin, 46%-41%. The Marquette survey of 700 likely voters was conducted from Sept. 30-Oct. 4, and has a 4.2 point margin of error.

In 2016, Trump pulled off a narrow upset win over Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin, which has 10 electoral votes. The state elected a Democrat in its 2018 gubernatorial race and has a Democrat and Republican in the U.S. Senate.

A Quinnipiac University survey shows Biden with a 13-point lead over Trump in Pennsylvania, 54%-41%. The poll of 1,211 likely voters was conducted from Oct. 1-5 and has a margin of error of 2.8 points.

An Emerson poll shows Biden with a narrower 5-point lead in Pennsylvania over the incumbent, 50%-45%. The survey of 688 likely Pennsylvania voters was conducted Oct. 4-5 and has a margin of error of 3.7 points.

Pennsylvania, which has 20 electoral votes, swung to Trump by a slim margin in 2016. On Sept. 15, FiveThirtyEight noted that "Pennsylvania is by far the likeliest state" to provide Trump or Biden with the decisive vote in the election and gave it a 31% chance of being the tipping-point state.

A New York Times/Siena College poll shows Biden with a narrow 1-point lead in Ohio, 45%-44%. The survey of 661 likely voters was conducted from Oct. 2-Oct. 6 and has a margin of error of 4.3 points.

Trump won Ohio, which has 18 electoral votes, by more than 8 points over Clinton in 2016.

The polls come after Trump’s positive COVID-19 diagnosis, along with his performance in last week’s presidential debate. It’s unclear when Trump will be able to return to the campaign trail, as the Nov. 3 election is just weeks away.

As Trump recovers from the virus, his family members and Vice President Mike Pence have scheduled campaign events across the country, known as Operation MAGA. Biden has recently held events in Florida and Pennsylvania.