Yankees vs. Astros: ALCS Game 6 Prediction, Betting Odds For Verlander-Severino Rematch

The New York Yankees are one win away from making their first World Series appearance in eight years. The Houston Astros, Justin Verlander and Game 6 of the 2017 ALCS are all that stand in their way.

It was less than a week ago that Houston took a commanding 2-0 series lead behind dominant pitching performances by Dallas Keuchel and Verlander. New York returned home to win three straight games, including a Game 5 victory over Houston’s ace.

On Friday night, the Yankees look for redemption against Verlander, as well.

Going head-to-head with Luis Severino in Game 2, Verlander had the best pitching performance of the 2017 MLB Playoffs. He threw a complete game, baffling Yankee hitters with 13 strikeouts. He gave up five hits and walked one batter, giving the Astros their second straight 2-1 victory.

It isn’t just that Verlander has been one of the American League’s best pitchers for the last decade. The veteran has been everything Houston could have hoped for and more when they traded for him on Aug. 31.

In five regular-season starts as an Astro, Verlander went a perfect 5-0, posting a 1.06 ERA, allowing a combined 17 hits and five walks in 34 innings. He never pitched fewer than six innings and never allowed more than two runs in a start.

Verlander has been equally as good in the postseason, picking up wins in his Game 2 start and his Game 4 relief appearance against the Boston Red Sox in the ALDS. Verlander is 10-5 in his playoff career with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP.

New York had been unable to solve Keuchel in the regular season or the playoffs until Wednesday night, knocking him out before the end of the fifth inning of Game 5. The Yankees hope to do the same to Verlander, and they head to Houston looking like the team that led MLB in runs, not the Astros.

The middle of New York’s lineup woke up in the Bronx after sleepwalking through the first two ALCS losses. Aaron Judge is hitting .313 in the series with two home runs and a 1.263 OPS. New York’s ALDS hero, Didi Gregorius, has his ALCS average up to .300. Gary Sanchez has three hits, including a home run and five RBI, in his last five at-bats.

The Yankees don’t need to light up Verlander in order to clinch the series. Severino will probably finish third in the AL Cy Young voting, and he’s allowed just four runs and nine baserunners in his last 11 postseason innings. New York’s bullpen is their strength, and the team’s top relievers are well-rested after Masahiro Tanaka gave them seven strong innings in Game 5.

Houston acquired Verlander for games just like this. With the team’s back against the wall, he can give the Astros a chance to play a winner-take-all game at home with a trip to the World Series on the line.

Playing at Yankee Stadium seems to give New York a true home-field advantage, more so than any other team in the postseason. Against Verlander on the road, the Yankees’ bats might not have the same kind of success that they had in Games 3-5.

The Game 6 betting odds list the Astros as -134 favorites, via OddsShark. The Yankees are +124 underdogs.

Prediction: Houston over New York, 3-1