Yankees vs. Indians: Game 5 Prediction, Betting Odds For Sabathia-Kluber Rematch

It was just a few days ago that the New York Yankees suffered their worst loss in 13 years, seemingly destined for an early exit in the 2017 MLB playoffs. But two straight wins at Yankee Stadium have given them a chance for redemption, returning to the scene of the crime in a winner-take-all Game 5.

The Cleveland Indians will send Corey Kluber to the mound against CC Sabathia Wednesday night at Progressive Field. The teams, starting pitchers and location are all the same for Game 5 as they were for Game 2.

The stakes are different.

Joe Girardi’s managerial blunders and the inability of New York’s bullpen to hold an 8-3 lead cost the Yankees a victory. It didn’t end their season, which a loss in Game 5 would.

The Indians had all the momentum in the world when Francisco Lindor’s grand slam cut the Yankees’ lead to 8-7 Friday night. It felt like only a matter of time before Cleveland would tie the game—which they did with a Jay Bruce home run in the eighth inning. At 8-8, an Indians’ win felt inevitable, and it finally came in the 13th inning.

Hall-of-Fame manager Earl Weaver famously said, “Momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher,” and Cleveland’s momentum didn’t travel to the Bronx two nights later. Do the Yankees’ big wins in the Bronx mean anything for their chances in Wednesday’s deciding game?

Teams that fall behind 2-0 in the division series rarely put together three straight wins. Those that make it to Game 5, however, usually complete the comeback.

Of the 76 teams that have fallen into a 2-0 hole, nine (11.8 percent) have gone on to win the series. But only six of 15 teams (40 percent) have won Game 5 after losing both Game 3 and Game 4.

Luis Severino was New York’s ace all season, and he pitched like one in their Game 4 win. Masahiro Tanaka arguably had the best start of his career in Game 3, given what was on the line.

No pitcher gives the Yankees a better chance to reach the ALCS than Sabathia.

“I love it. CC is a big-game pitcher. CC was good four days ago and that could have been his last game as a Yankee,’’ New York outfielder Brett Gardner said, via The New York Post. “He is a good guy to hand the ball to for Game 5.’’

In 14 career postseason starts with the Yankees, Sabathia is 7-2 with a 3.44 ERA. He’s been the team’s stopper all year, going 9-0 with a 1.71 ERA after Yankee losses. Sabathia went 7-3 with a 3.18 ERA on the road in the regular season.

Allowing two runs in 5.1 innings in Game 2, the left-hander pitched well enough to get the victory. He did what Cleveland's ace couldn’t, escaping a bases-loaded jam in the second inning when the game was about to get out of hand. Sabathia went on to retire 12 of the next 13 batters before he was prematurely pulled by Girardi.

Kluber is looking for some redemption of his own. He had his worst performance of the season in Game 2, allowing six runs while recording just eight outs.

“It's hard to imagine giving it to someone better,” Cleveland manager Terry Francona told reporters Monday night. “We go to Game 5, we're home, and we have Kluber. We're looking forward to it.”

Can the Yankees get to Kluber for a second straight game? It certainly doesn’t seem likely.

Kluber is the favorite to win the 2017 AL Cy Young award, having won 18 games with a 2.25 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP. The right-hander had a 1.83 ERA in 34.1 innings in the 2016 playoffs. New York’s hitters had a combined .155 batting average against Kluber before Game 2.

Kluber surrendered just one total run in his final four regular-season starts, and he hadn’t given up more than three runs since before the trade deadline. The right-hander allowed more than three runs in four of his 29 starts. His ERA in the starts following those four outings is a combined 0.90.

That’s why Cleveland is favored in Game 5. The Indians have -177 betting odds, via OddsShark, and the Yankees are +167 underdogs.

Neither Kluber nor Sabathia decided their first matchup, and Game 2 came down to a battle of the bullpens. New York’s tired arms blew the lead. Cleveland’s fresh relievers gave them a chance to win.

Both bullpens should be well-rested after a day off Tuesday. The likes of Andrew Miller, Cody Allen, David Robertson, Chad Green and Aroldis Chapman will be ready to empty the tank if called upon.

With the league’s best pitcher on the hill at home, Cleveland has the edge. But anything can happen in a deciding MLB game, and that especially rings true for Wednesday’s Game 5.

Cleveland over New York 3-1