Analysts Predict Chances of BTC ETF Approval In January As SEC's Window To Greenlight All 12 Filings Begins

As anticipation grows around the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) filings, ETF analysts have given the probability of the applications getting approved by January 2024, as the first window for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to decide on all 12 prospectuses commences Thursday.

The major Wall Street regulator can approve all 12 spot Bitcoin ETF applications within the next eight days, according to Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas.

In their latest research note, the analysts said that "a brief window opens on Nov. 9 for the SEC to potentially approve all 12 US spot Bitcoin ETF applicants, including Grayscale's GBTC. It will be open for at least eight days."

Seyffart explained that "delay orders were issued by the SEC for BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity & Valkyrie at the same time. If the agency wants to allow all 12 filers to launch -- as we believe -- this is the first available window since Grayscale's court victory was affirmed."

But, how did the analysts arrive at this date?

The commission chose this brief window when it extended the deadline for multiple pending spot Bitcoin ETF applications, with Nov. 8 being noted as the last day of the comment period.

Global X Bitcoin Trust, Hashdex Bitcoin ETF, and Franklin Bitcoin ETF will have their comment period restarted on Nov. 17, based on the submission of applications and the timeframe scheduled by the SEC, which means the filings won't be approved or denied until Nov. 23.

"This window for all 12 ends by 11/17. But theoretically, SEC could make a decision on the first 9 on this list at any point from now until Jan 10, 2024," Seyffart further said.

While the SEC has remained mum about the developments surrounding the spot Bitcoin ETF applications, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts maintained their previous prediction that there is a 90% chance that the filings will be approved by Jan. 10, 2024.

Earlier this week, Seyffart said that the odds of all 12 spot Bitcoin ETF applications getting approved by 2023 are 75%.

"We're still at 75% by the end of the year but we think um basically one thing that goes into all this is we think the SEC is going to try to allow most if not all of them to launch on the same day," Syeffart said in an interview with Paul Barron on the latter's YouTube channel. "They're not going to play kingmaker."

Bitcoin was trading in the green zone at $36,590.55 as of 4:12 a.m. ET on Thursday, with a 24-hour trading volume up by 27.28% at 23.82, representing a 3.66% spike in the last 24 hours and a 5.7% gain over the past seven days.

Data from CoinMarketCap revealed that Bitcoin's total circulating supply stands at 19.54 million BTC, with its value up by 3.64% at a market cap of $714.69 billion.