Can Harold Camping make a “Doomsday” prediction for the U.S. dollar?
We can now safely say Harold Camping's prediction that the world will end on Saturday, May 21, 2011 at 6pm local time, did not come true.
I think the next question to ask Mr. Camping is, when will the US dollar crumple to its knees. Maybe he's better suited to be an fx trader. I've heard forecasts of the US dollar losing its reserve currency status as soon as 2015.
One of the important reasons that the US dollar remains the reserve currency is the US bond market. Our bond market is the most-liquid of its kind. Altogether, foreign countries own $2.4 trillion in U.S. Treasuries. If China, Japan or other major holders started dumping dollars on the secondary market, this could cause a panic leading to collapse. China owns more than $1 trillion in U.S. Treasuries. Maybe Mr. Camping can predict the day that China starts dumping our Treasuries. Maybe Mr. Camping can tell us who will overtake the world with the title of World's number one reserve currency; will it be the Euro, or Chinese Yuan?
And if he gives us an actual day when he thinks the U.S. dollar will collapse, folks based on his track record that may be the day we hit a true bottom in the US dollar and I'll jump in and start buying dollars. Until then, the long term trade is still to sell US dollars.
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