Can UN Sanctions Bring North Korea On Negotiating Table? US Hopeful

Nearly a week after Pyongyang conducted its sixth and largest nuclear test, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on Monday passed a U.S.-drafted resolution to impose a new set of sanctions on North Korea.

Referring to the sanctions, U.S. ambassador to UN Nikki Haley said in a statement that these were by far the strongest measures ever imposed on Pyongyang. “They give us a much better chance to halt the regime’s ability to fuel and finance its nuclear and missile programs.”

The resolution bans all textile exports from the country — an annual revenue blow of around $800 million. It also “puts an end to the regime making money from the 93,000 North Korean citizens it sends overseas to work,” according to the statement issued by Haley’s office.

On Sunday, in a bid to win support from China and Russia, the U.S. had diluted its initial draft of the resolution that recommended a complete oil embargo and partial naval blockade.

The watered-down resolution also imposes asset freezes on most entities of the regime. “But more importantly, the regime can no longer obtain critically needed foreign investments, technology, and know-how needed for its commercial industries,” Haley said.

The sanctions were welcomed by several countries, including North’s key trading partner China. After the sanctions were passed, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang said Tuesday morning that Beijing supported the UNSC in taking the necessary measures regarding the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's (DPRK) nuclear test, according to state-run Xinhua.

Francois Delattre, the French envoy to the UN, referred to Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions as a “global threat” that united different countries in the Security Council.

In her response, Haley also stressed the world would not accept a nuclear-armed North Korea and said the fresh sanctions were different than what Pyongyang had faced so far. However, a major concern for all the world leaders after the vote is whether the move would bring North Korea to the negotiating table.

This is the eighth time that the UN has imposed sanctions on North Korea since the DPRK conducted its first nuclear test in 2006. In August, a similar resolution was adopted by the organization and the U.S. State Department had responded to it saying the “tough new sanctions would slice $1 billion from North Korea’s total annual exports of $3 billion.” However, that did not deter Pyongyang from threatening a missile strike on the U.S. Pacific territory of Guam.

Moreover, the Trump administration has been giving mixed signals as far its North Korea policy is concerned. While President Donald Trump has been trying to take an aggressive stance against Pyongyang in recent weeks, he had praised North Korean leader Kim Jong-un earlier on several instances. Even Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had earlier said that U.S. was not aiming to destabilize North Korea or for a regime change in the country.

It would also not be wrong to say that the sanctions are more likely to affect the people in the country than the regime. According to South Korea’s central bank estimates, its neighbor’s gross national income was just 2.2 percent of that of South Korea in 2015. However, the DPRK still prefers to spend more than 20 percent of its GDP on fulfilling its nuclear ambitions.

Moreover, a UN report in March also pointed out how roughly 18 million people across the DPRK were not getting enough food. “Chronic food insecurity, early childhood malnutrition, and nutrition insecurity are widespread in the DPRK,” the report said. But these humanitarian concerns have also failed to elicit a required response from the regime that recently tested a hydrogen bomb.

The North currently has around 30 to 60 nuclear weapons. Despite repeated sanctions from the UN, Pyongyang's economy grew at its fastest pace in 17 years in 2016, South Korea’s central bank observed last year. The Bank of Korea drew links between North’s robust economic growth and missile programs and noted that the manufacture of components was included when calculating GDP growth, according to a Reuters report.

Commenting on the impact of the sanctions, Stuart Culverhouse, head of macro and fixed income research at specialist frontier markets investment bank Exotix Capital said, “The stiffer sanctions won’t change anything in the near-term. The new embargoes are incrementally tougher, but diplomacy meant they had to be comprised to an extent that they are very unlikely to change minds in Pyongyang. Markets will continue to be on red alert."

Ahead of the unanimous UN vote, the DPRK had said Monday the U.S. would pay the due price for spearheading the resolution. It's yet to be seen if the world leaders coming together against the North would be able to create an impact in the long term.