Chances Of Putin Being Replaced As Russian Leader By 2024 Is 'Greater Than 50%': Political Scientist

Russian President Vladimir Putin could soon find himself being replaced in the 2024 election, a political scientist suggested Thursday.

Thomas Remington — a political scientist, visiting professor of government at Harvard and professor emeritus at Emory University — said there are many factors Putin has to resolve if he wants to stay in power, including economic pressure and military dysfunction. The latter has led to massive losses among the Russian military's ranks in the war in Ukraine.

"Should that continue, and it's reflected in broadening public awareness in Russian society, then that too could be one of those factors that pressure elite change from above," Remington said in an interview with The Harvard Gazette. "[The chance of regime change in 2024 may be] greater than 50 percent."

However, other experts interviewed by the outlet were less confident in a regime change, with Andrei Yakovlev, an economist and Davis Center visiting scholar, putting the probability of geopolitical changes in Russia at "no more than 10%."

The experts' remarks come amid uncertainty over Putin's plans for 2024. The Kremlin has started preparing for his 2024 presidential campaign under the assumption that Russia will achieve victory in the war in Ukraine, the Kommersant business daily reported, citing unnamed sources, as translated via Google Translate.

"According to Kommersant's sources, representatives of the internal political bloc of the Presidential Administration are working out various election scenarios and proceed from the fact that the campaign will go according to plan, in 2024, and Mr. Putin will take part in it," the outlet said. "The outlines of the ideological component are still unclear, though it is assumed that it will be based on the theme of unity."

The outlet also reported that Russia's upper house of parliament is expected to launch the presidential campaign in December 2023 to prepare for the elections currently scheduled for March 17, 2024.

The International Business Times could not independently verify the reporting. The Kremlin has also declined to say whether Putin will seek re-election in 2024, adding that no announcements have been made on the matter.

In April 2021, Putin signed a law that allowed him to run for two more six-year terms. This means he could stay in power until 2036.