Chiefs Playoff Chances 2021: AFC West Title In Sight, How Kansas City Can Make Playoff Picture

The Kansas City Chiefs are on the cusp of winning yet another AFC West championship. By defeating the Los Angeles Chargers Thursday night, Kansas City exponentially increased its chances of staying in first place and virtually guaranteed itself a spot in the final 2021 playoff picture.

A 34-yard touchdown pass in overtime from Patrick Mahomes to Travis Kelce gave the Chiefs a 34-28 victory in Los Angeles to kick off the NFL Week 15 schedule. The Chiefs moved two games ahead of the Chargers atop the division with just three games left to play.

The Denver Broncos are 2.5 games behind Kansas City in the AFC West ahead of Sunday’s matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals. The Las Vegas Raiders are 3.5 games out of first place and eliminated from the divisional race.

No matter what Denver or Los Angeles does the rest of the way, Kansas City can clinch the AFC West title with two wins in its final three games. The Chiefs host the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 16. Kansas City visits the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 17 and ends the regular season in Denver.

If the Chargers lose one of their remaining three games, the Chiefs only need to go 1-2 the rest of the way to finish ahead of Los Angeles. L.A. visits the Houston Texans before playing Denver and Las Vegas to close out the season.

Kansas City owns the tiebreaker over Los Angeles.

Denver has almost no chance to finish ahead of Kansas City in the standings. If the Chiefs only win one of their next three games, the Broncos would have to run the table in order to win the AFC West. That would mean ending the season with victories over the Raiders, Chargers and Chiefs in consecutive weeks.

The Chiefs beat the Broncos 22-9 in Week 13. It’s part of Kansas City’s seven-game winning streak. The Chiefs will control the AFC’s No. 1 seed if the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans lose their Week 15 games.

No NFL team, including New England, has had more regular-season success than Kansas City in the last half-decade. The Chiefs are headed toward their sixth straight division title. Kansas City won at least 12 games en route to four of their previous five AFC West championships.

Kansas City ranks seventh in both points per game and scoring defense. Patrick Mahomes is fifth in passing yards per game and fourth with 30 touchdown passes.

FiveThirtyEight’s prediction model gives the Chiefs a 94% chance to win the AFC West.