KEY POINTS

  • The Covid-19 outbreak is slowing down despite daily reports of increases in the numbers of cases and fatalities, says a new clinical study from China
  • The study said more than 80% of the cases have been mild
  • The coronavirus fatality rate is 2.3% compared to SARS (10%) and seasonal flu (0.1% in U.S.)

A new clinical study out of China suggests the raging Covid-19 outbreak that inflicted 75,196 confirmed cases and 2,009 deaths worldwide as of Wednesday noon might, in fact, have peaked in late January. However, it did note the fatality rate of this coronavirus is much higher than that of the flu.

The study by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) said "the epidemic appears to be in decline in the lead up to February 11, 2020." It also said "the epidemic curve of onset of symptoms peaked around January 23-26, then began to decline." This plateauing since January 26 might help explain the decline in the number of new cases being reported every day by the National Health Commission (NHC).

The comprehensive analysis of Covid-19 and its effects conducted by Chinese epidemiologists and other experts admitted the Covid-19 epidemic spread very quickly, and took only 30 days to expand from Hubei to the rest of Mainland China. That this epidemic didn't spread faster and claim more victims is due to the rapid and effective response of the Chinese medical community and the government.

"The massive vigorous actions taken by the Chinese government have slowed down the epidemic in China and curbed spread to the rest of the world." said the study.

Early cases suggested Covid-19 might be less severe than SARS and MERS. On the other hand, illness onset among rapidly increasing numbers of people, and mounting evidence of human-to-human transmission, suggested 2019-nCoV is more contagious than both SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV.

CCDC said it was fortunate COVID-19 has been mild for 81% of patients and has a low overall case fatality rate of 2.3% compared to SARS which had close to 10%. However, compared to the seasonal flu with a death rate in the U.S. of about about 0.1%, these statistics mean Covid-19 is 20 times deadlier than the flu.

On Wednesday hundreds of passengers on the Diamond Princess who tested negative for the virus began leaving the ship
On Wednesday hundreds of passengers on the Diamond Princess who tested negative for the virus began leaving the ship AFP / CHARLY TRIBALLEAU

Other key findings of the study on the coronavirus outbreak:

  • More than 80% of the cases have been mild.
  • The sick and elderly are most at risk, and men are more likely to die than women.
  • A majority of the deaths have been among people about 60 years of age that have pre-existing, comorbid conditions such as hypertension, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes.
  • The case fatality rate is highest among critical cases at 49%.
  • No deaths have occurred among those with mild or even severe symptoms.
  • The 80 age group has the highest case fatality rate of all age groups at 14.8%.
  • The case fatality rate for males was 2.8% and for females was 1.7%.
  • By occupation, retirees had the highest case fatality rate at 5.1%.
  • Patients in Hubei Province had a seven-fold higher case fatality rate at 2.9% compared to patients in other provinces (0.4%).
  • Patients who reported no comorbid conditions had a case fatality rate of 0.9%.
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