China Will Soon Have All Tools Needed For Taiwan Invasion, Say Analysts

As China mounts pressure on Taiwan, defense analysts have predicted that Beijing will double down on its tactics to take over the island nation.

The observations come as the ruling power recently reiterated its determination to "reunify" Taiwan at the Shangri-La Dialogue conference. Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe had made it clear at the meeting that Beijing would fight any efforts to make Taiwan independent at all costs.

According to Ridzwan Rahmat, a principal defense analyst at Janes, the chance of an armed conflict between Beijing and Taiwan is significantly higher now than it was five years ago.

"This is because the PLA will soon be equipped with the tools needed to mount an invasion force across the Taiwan Strait. Given this ability, we can expect Beijing to exhibit a lot more assertiveness when it comes to dealing with Taiwan," Rahmat was quoted by South China Morning Post.

Other analysts too believe that the emerging superpower will use more gray zone tactics in Taiwan. Zeno Leoni, a defense studies lecturer at King's College London, told DW that military involvement in Taiwan will be too risky. "Because of all of this, they tend to use gray zone tactics [against Taiwan], and we could see more and more of that in the future. These are ways to exert pressure on Taiwan without upsetting the United States and triggering any reaction from the West," he added.

China's aggressiveness was on display Sunday when 10 PLA planes were tracked in the southwest corner of Taiwan’s ADIZ. This included Shenyang J-16 fighter jets, two Chengdu J-10 fighter planes, two Shenyang J-11 jet fighters, and one KJ-500 airborne early warning and control plane. This month alone, China sent 21 aircraft into Taiwan’s ADIZ, including 15 fighter jets, one bomber and five spotter planes.

Three days ago, the PLA also launched a new advanced aircraft carrier, the Fujian, a clear show of its military might.

That said, the country will also resort to non-military options to achieve its goal. "They could attempt to integrate Taiwan economically into the mainland in such a way that reunification becomes inevitable. The Chinese have been doing this for many years already with a fair amount of success, but it’s something of a long process," David Silbey, a military historian at Cornell University in Washington, told South China Morning Post.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration has decided to reject China's claim that the Taiwan Strait is not "international waters."

While Taiwan Strait was not a regular talking point in meetings with US officials before, China has been taking a defiant stance recently, bringing up the legal status of the channel.