Italy has now taken a firm lead in the number of deaths linked to the coronavirus or SARS-CoV2 virus that causes the disease COVID-19. The total deaths as of Monday are 5,476 with 651 additional deaths added to Saturday’s 793 fatalities.

Researchers are still trying to discover why Italy has been hit so hard by the pandemic and if this is unique to Italy or if other countries will face the same fate. Statistics may provide a clue as to what to expect. The disease originated in Wuhan, China, as early as late November but most of the tracking on a global basis began on Jan. 22.

The number of new cases in China peaked between Feb. 16 through Feb. 20, according to Worldometers, a website that provides counters and real-time statistics.

South Korea cases peaked the week of March 7 through 14 and have been on a gradual decline since.

Italy seems to be peaking now but it will take a few days to see if the drop in new cases from 6.557 on March 21 to 5,560 on March 22 is a downward trend or if it will increase once again.

Worldwide, there was a one-day spike on Feb. 12 where over 14,000 new cases were reported but the big increase over the past few days are a confirmation that Europe and the U.S. are rocketing toward their peaks. The current numbers globally are at almost 340,000 confirmed cases and 17,706 deaths, according to the Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU) webpage.

The validity of the reported numbers is uncertain as testing and reporting are inconsistent between countries and there are transparency issues with some countries, namely in authoritarian regimes like China, North Korea and Iran that will cast doubt over the data.

A case study could be made with the cruise ship Diamond Princess where about 3,700 people were made into unwilling guinea pigs due to the coronavirus. The timeline of events may provide clues as to just how fast the virus can spread:

  • Jan. 20 – The cruise ship leaves Yokohama for a two-week cruise to China, Vietnam, and Taiwan.
  • Jan. 25 – An 80-year-old man disembarks in Hong Kong.
  • Feb. 1 – the man tests positive for what will become known as COVID-19
  • Feb. 3 – The ship docks at Yokohama.
  • Feb. 4 – The rest of the cruise is canceled; 10 people test positive and are taken ashore. The ship is put under quarantine.
  • Feb. 5-11 – The number of confirmed cases gradually rises to 218 with the biggest one-day rise of 66 new cases on February 7.
  • Feb. 15 – 22 – The number of cases accelerates to 691 with 4 deaths, the biggest one-day jump is on February 17 with 99 new cases. Some passengers are beginning to be airlifted off the ship.
  • Feb. 27 – All passengers have departed except for about 240 crew members.
  • March 1 - Captain Gennaro Arma is the last person to leave Diamond Princess.

One of the questions raised by the timeline is if the acceleration of cases on the Diamond Princess that began on Feb. 15, can be linked to similar accelerations elsewhere including the current rise of new cases in Italy?

RELATED STORIES
Coronavirus South Korea China